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Why NY and not just NYC would be a unique, interesting, and fun FO5 setting
To start, this should be a single player game. If Bethesda/Obsidian/MS can make it so I can play with 1 or 2 friends, I want that but understand it's not that simple. So why it should be picked: First, NY has an amazing history when it comes to Pre-Revolution, Revolution, the Civil War, and beyond. Major events like the battle at Saratoga (which is considered the turning point of the Revolution), the 1980 Miracle on Ice, and Woodstock (along with a whole lot more) all took place in upstate NY. So the rich history of the area is ripe for pro American stylizing and propaganda that gives FO it's unique take on American Atom-punk. That along with more modern history of things like the Native Americans (The Oneidas) actually taking back their land and forming their own sovereign nation (basically they have their own gov. Pay no state taxes, and self govern with police, fire, and allow gambling which NY does not). So their modern government would not only be some great lore, but I honestly believe could be a basis for the main quest line. Things like their unique tribal leadership, philosophy, and gambling (hello 10 luck) could bring a very grey area to fallout that was kind of missed in FO3 + 4. Plus their mythology would make for a great weird scene that fallout has at least 1 of every game. Also, for those who don't know, upstate NY is very country with major cities pocketed about. (Utica, Albany, Syracuse, etc). So if you liked NV style of wandering the wastes, or 3s style of city wandering, we've got both. Also, we've got two mountains areas, one in the Adirondacks and the Catskills are the other. That said, one of the most important parts of fallout are the locations. Where can we go? For that I have a list: Major locations: Lake Placid Winter Olympics training facility - the winter olympics world be held in 2078 and if they still exist by then and to play into the game, LP could be the location of those games. Again, the miracle on ice where American Amateurs bested the Communist Russian Pros, was held there. The "Better dead than Red" sentiment would be full force. Not to mention one of a few great locations for a possible vault (80, in this case to house winter olympians). Plus, the weapons could be cool too. Hockey sticks, hockey skate blades on gloves, a goalie mask for armor, you name it. Cooperstown Baseball HOF - Now when you think Americana, Baseball is one of your first thoughts, don't lie. Cooperstown is baseball central and very pretty. Another great place for pro-american styles and fun gear like baseball base mines, softball helmets (because fuck you "A League of Their Own" style pro-baseball league in FO sounds awesome), and of course bats and baseball grenades. Also a baseball Vault (Vault 4, 5, 7, or 9). Not my idea, but in this vault, there's 32 teams of mens and 32 teams of womens baseball (or coed teams, idk), all of whom are pro players. Vault tec test is simple, winner gets food and drinks, loser gets steroid infused food and drink (but they don't know it has steroids obviously). The idea is, test how good at baseball people can be if given monster amounts of steroids for generations. I'll make a separate post about this in detail if desired. Canastota Boxing HOF - Another unique area for America. Canastota is pretty boring and empty, but for those of you old enough to remember Rocky when it came out, it basically revived Boxing as a major sport and also had a moment where America bested the Red Menace (Rocky IV). Maybe a spot for a vault or to learn unique unarmed moves. Pugilism Illustrated anyone? Albany - NYs capital and an easy big city area along the Hudson. A great location for corporate greed, governmental corruption, and side quests. Can't say it'll be the focal point of the game since its very near the eastern border of it, but a good location for exploring and lore. Buffalo/Niagara Falls - Ya ever gone over the falls in a barrel? Do ya want to? I think using Niagara Falls (which has an American and Canadian side, Canadas is the U-shaped famous one) as Fallouts first "Non-American" location would be fun. First, the falls are beautiful and are a major source of hydroelectric power. Second, in FO, America annexed canada, so it's technically still America! Third, right across the "border" are casinos! More gambling! Third and a half, it's another big city and buffalo is where the buffalo wing was invented (God bless buffalo wings). Besides the cool lore opportunity about the annexation and the city location, the falls could be a major location for the story if the main conflict was about powering the area, similar to NV. Syracuse - NYs (literal) center city. The Salt City as it was formally known is a big city with some great old and new style. Again, not much about the city to say, but a great opportunity for corporate BS. The main attraction would be the Syracuse Dome (formerly the Carrier Dome). Due to its location and style, it's perfect as a central trading hub for the major cities and people. Think of Great Green Jewel style, people living, bars, shops, etc. BUT the really interesting part is what's right next to the Dome. SUNY ESF (Environmental Science and Forestry). This college is special because (A. I went there) it has very unique programs and with some future tech thrown in, could be a great location for a Fallout 3 Harold or NV vault 22-esq quest. The college already does experiments with major chemicals, evolution (FEV anyone?) and breeding plants for unique purposes. Again, I have a really cool idea for this area, but that can be a different post. Fun fact, ESF is actually working to bring back the North America Chestnut that went (nearly) extinct! Also, some asshole releases the fruit flies the genetics lab work with every year and it sucks. NYC (Empire, 9/11 memorial, Statue of Liberty) - Yeah yeah, you can't have NY without the City, but frankly there's so much here to explore and deal with, I'd leave it to the pros to really do it justice. Turning Stone Casino - Gambling, a hotel/restaurants like in NV, and a good spot for the main quest line. Fort Stanwix - A real revolutionary war fort. HQ or major area for raiders. Safe, well protected and with plenty of history. Fort Drum and Griffis Air Force Base: Two major bases that could be packed with guns, nukes, and power armor. Heavily guarded by turrets, robots, and security gates. Main Quest: Without too much detail, I figure your character will be hired to figure out the future of NY. You'll be brought to the Turning Stone which is currently the HQ of the Oneida tribe. Your job would be to either work with the other tribes in the former Iroquois Confederation (Seneca, Cayuga, Onondaga, Oneida, Mohawk, and Tuscarora [added later]). (Quick note: in my AU, some time after the bombs fell, the IC came to power because of their knowledge of living off the land and attempted to rebuild society. After some time rebuilding and establishing a post-war society, the tribes do the thing all humans do and bicker. Around 2200 the IC broke apart but the tribes retained power in their areas. They fight, trade, yadda yadda but no one is in control of everything. Throughout your quest, it turns out that what is holding everyone back is a lack of power for things like lights and running water. Your job will be to determine where to get that power (Nuclear power plant in Oswego or the falls in Niagara?) And where to give it (one tribe? A few? Or all?). But that's not all, the tribes can't decide who should be in charge. One tribe wants to remain independent, don't help the outsiders and rebuild society in their image within NY, another wants to help others but would need to sacrifice their own people's safety and seclusion. Maybe another wants to be imperialist and expand their borders throughout America through way of force and fear while another agrees with taking land but wants it done through offers of protection for taxes. And each tribe has its own opinion on bringing the IC back together, staying separate, or taking over the tribes for themselves. It's up to you character to decide who to help. Do you work hard to try and bring all tribes together under one banner or choose a side and execute their will as a paid mercenary/ambassador? Other choices would be chaos by siding with raiders, or maybe a BOS path to take out all the tribes, idk, haven't thought it all out. Again, not a writer. Mechanics: So personally, I like the idea that if you choose to go with a single faction, there would a battle/war mechanic where you and an army (or alone if you really wanna try) take over and lay claim to areas similar to Nuka World where you fly the gangs flag. Nothing complicated, normal fallout fights, don't die and kill the leadehis troops to win. Karma is back. You will garner good or bad rep with each tribe depending on what you do. I'd like an armor system like in NV but I can live without it. There is an ending. Once you beat the game you can continue doing side quests for armoexperience/ammo but only for the tribes left in power. Occasional rebellions will rise up as random events that need to be put down. Settlements are limited. Like skyrim, but a plot and build. No need to build one everywhere and you don't even need to do it if you don't want to. Radio host? Gimme a Mr. New Vegas type guy. I don't want an eccentric 3-dog, I want a smoothed voiced person wishing me lady like luck. Also, smarter AI. Otherwise, typical FO mechanics. Weapons degrade, can upgrade weapons and armor, etc. Main problems with NY: No real borders to the south. Invisible walls would like be necessary which is stupid. Same to the East, but the Hudson could theoretically be used as a border if you put crazy strong mirelurks or something to kill the player if they tried to cross (or more invisible walls) Don't want to disrespect the tribes. This is an issue with using each tribe as a possible faction. You're bound to piss off or disrespect one. So it'll be a task to make sure it's as limited as possible. What to do with the city? It's a huge area that can be used for so much, but as a part of NY it's actually pretty seperated. It's a commercial hub now, but there's nothing there that would really be a reason to go down there. So do you make it one or do we just make it a glowing sea type area that's completely decimated from the bombs? That's my personal choice honestly, but it's a tough one to please as many as possible. Conclusion: NY is rad. I'll be taking questions as long as they do not involve Canadian trivia. Thank you.
[Mod Post] Looking to spread cheer? These care homes have residents who'd be grateful for some mail during lockdown!
The RAoC Mod Team hopes you're staying safe and healthy during these trying times. Many nursing homes, assisted living facilities, group homes, and similar locations are now on lockdown. This increased isolation can be very hard on residents. We're seeing more card requests here and around the internet, so we've decided to compile a list, and we need your help!
We've got 2 tasks we're asking for your help with:
Send some cheer and support in the form of cards to some of the places on the list! Some tips for content & addressing cards are in the pinned comment below the post.
Check out the social media of or contact a local nursing/assisted living/group/etc. home and ask if they would like to be on the list to receive cards! Get permission to publicly share the address, then fill out our form so we can add it to the list! You'll need a. the name of the place, b. the mailing address, and c. the name and contact information for who gave permission (this will be kept private)orthe link to their request on social media.
You're also welcome to put more than one card per envelope to save on postage! Check your country's weight limits per stamp, but then feel free to load them on up to send the most cheer possible!
Places to send cards:
Note, list is not ordered by name or country, but by most recently added to our list. That way, the most recently added are easily found. Check back regularly! Countries are now bolded for visibility.
Skylark Assisted Living
Skylark Assisted Living 900 Skylark Place Ashland, OR 97520 USA
More Info: 100 Residents in assisted living and memory care ranging in age from 59-104!
ATTN: Therese Cards for Residents 1370 Victory Dr. South Euclid OH 44121 USA
The Reserve At North Dallas
c/o Jan Hacke for RAoC The Reserve At North Dallas 12271 Coit Road 2404 Dallas Texas 75251 USA
Extra Info: A RAoC member lives here and wants to share the joy of random happy mail with her fellow residents. The facility has been on lock down since March 12 and will remain on full lock down for the foreseeable future because many residents have additional susceptibility beyond just age. Some live independently, others are in assisted care. However, all are restricted to their rooms, most alone for nearly 23 hours per day. Note: On the outside of the envelope, please write "RAoC" and if there is more than 1 card inside.
Zearing Health Care Center 404 E Garfield St Zearing IA, 50278 USA
Extra info: Good morning all! If you or your kids need something to do our residents would love some mail. They are really missing contact with the outside world. Anything would be greatly appreciated. Thank you so much for your continued thoughts, everyone here is happy, just missing family and friends!!!
Thompson House Rehabilitation and Nursing Center
Thompson House Rehabilitation and Nursing Center 80 Maple Street Brattleboro VT 05301 USA
Extra info: Thank You so much! Any corospondance or card will make the world of difference in the lives of the Thompson House residences and will be greeted with appreciation and joy.
Esplanade Senior Living at Palisades
The Esplanade 640 Oak Tree Rd. Palisades, NY 10964 USA
Extra info: Not only can't they have outside visitors, but they're being quarantined to their own apartments, so cards would be very appreciated.
Oak Creek Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation
Oak Creek Terrace Nursing and Rehabilitation 2316 Springmill Rd. Kettering, OH 45440 USA
Brighton Gardens of Raleigh
C/O Activities Director Brighton Gardens of Raleigh 3101 Duraleigh Rd Raleigh NC 27612 USA
Extra info: A Sunrise Senior Assisted Living with a section for Memory Care, called Reminiscence. There are about 110 residents, and they'd love some cards! They were very excited that we reached out with an offer to add them to this list!
Silver Linings Personal Care Home
Silver Linings PCH 407 Harvey Street Stapleton, GA 30823 USA
Extra info: We are a small assisted living facility for seniors and house 11 residents.
Wyoming Veteran Veterans Home of Wyoming 700 Veterans Lane Buffalo, WY 82834 USA
Extra info: This home provides food, shelter, and assisted living care to any Wyoming Veteran that needs it, free of charge. They're on lock down and can't leave or have visitors. Many of these Veterans do not have family or friends, so a card could/can help lift their spirits!
Heartis Clear Lake 14520 Highway 3 Webster, TX 77598 USA
Extra info: They'll share cards between all residents, but if you'd like to see if anyone in particular would like a card addressed to them, ask on their facebook link above!
Stadtresidenz im Casino Wetzlar Bewohner der Junge Pflege Kalsmuntstrasse 68-74 35578 Wetzlar Germany
Extra info: This is a facility for young people with disabilities. Many of the residents do not understand why their family can't come visit anymore, so any sort of care and outreach would be greatly appreciated!
Jenner Court: McCarthy & Stone Assisted Living
Retirement Community Jenner Court: McCarthy & Stone St George's Rd Cheltenham GL50 3ER United Kingdom
Extra Info: Elderly residents who are around 80+ years old. Some of whom have mobility issues or are technologically illiterate, so they wouldn't know how to use social media. The residents very much enjoy playing Rummikub everyday, but due to social distancing, they can't really play anymore. They are no longer allowed visitors, but are still accepting packages, so snail mail communication would brighten them up.
Park House Residential Care Home Martinstown Dorchester Dorset DT2 9JN UK
Extra info: They provide care for patients with a variety of needs, and are primarily a dementia care home. All you need to do is pick a room number (1 to 21 - no number 13) and send your card to the above address! They say "If you would like a letter or card back from one of our residents, please feel free to include your name and address."
18th December 2019 Good morning fellow traders, good luck today, stay warm.
DOW
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) received regulatory approval from China to set up a majority owned securities venture in the country, which will include a brokerage, investment advisory, underwriting and sponsorship. Merck & Co. (MRK) announced the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted 9-4 in favour of recommending Keytruda, for the treatment of patients with high-risk, non-muscle invasive bladder cancer.
NASDAQ 100
Activision Blizzard (ATVI) announced it is putting the release of its Warcraft III: Reforged, to January 28th 2020, despite aiming to release the game prior to year-end as they feel little more time is needed to maintain its high quality standards. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) has paid some of its suppliers up to 25% more for the goods it resells to offset US President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products, according to Business Insider. Elsewhere, it announced a free return on millions of items, for items such as electronics, household items, pet supplies kitchen appliances and more. Illumina Inc (ILMN) has had its USD 1.2bln deal to acquire Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB) challenged by the FTC, alleging ILMN is aiming to unlawfully maintain a monopoly in the US. Market for next-gen DNA sequencing systems, by eliminating PACB as a threat. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) has partnered with Tencent (700 HK) to launch a cloud gaming service in China. Tesla (TSLA) are reportedly considering reducing prices of its Model 3 sedans in China by 20% or more in 2020, according to people familiar with the matter.
S & P 500
Altria Group Inc (MO) – A study released suggests that the nicotine formula used by JUUL Labs is almost identical to the flavour and addictive profile of the tobacco company’s Marlboro cigarette. Boston Properties (BXP) increased its quarterly dividend to USD 0.98/share from USD 0.95/share. CIGNA Corp. (CI) is to sell one of its units that sells non-medical insurance products to employers for USD 6.3bln to New York Life Insurance Co. Cigna also announced a USD 4bln share repurchase programme. Cintas Corp (CTAS) Q2 (USD): EPS 2.27 (exp. 2.03), Revenue 1.84bln (exp. 1.82bln); raised its FY20 EPS forecast to 8.65-8.97 (exp. 8.61, prev. 8.47-8.57). Devon Energy (DVN) announced a new USD 1bln share repurchase programme. Dish Network (DISH) co-founder Ergen appealed to testify in support of the T-Mobile (TMUS) and Sprint (S) deal, stating he has letters from three banks prepared to offer USD 10bln to fund the company’s new wireless network. E-Trade (ETFC) has announced an online-trade clearance automation, an industry first which allows administrators to enter, view and edit trade clearance instructions online for their participants, which includes trade windows, number and type of shares, time frame, and other grant specific information. FedEx Corporation (FDX) Q4 19 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.51 (exp. 2.84), Revenue 17.3bln (exp. 17.69bln), FY20 EPS view cut to 9.10-10.35 (adj. now seen between 10.25-11.50). Says quarterly results declined due to weak global economic conditions, higher ground costs, loss of business from a large customer. Later timing of Thanksgiving resulted in shifting of cyber week into December, which negatively impacted the results. Sees FDX ground operating margins to rebound. Morgan Stanley note the poor FedEx earnings holds a negative read to its competitor, United Parcel Service (UPS) General Electric (GE) healthcare unit has issued a recall for its Giraffe Incubator, OmniBed, and Care stations at the request of the FDA, who state the bedside panels can be upright and look closed but not be securely latched. General Mills (GIS) Q4 19 (USD): EPS 0.95 (exp. 0.88), Revenue 4.42bln (exp. 4.43bln). Pet food sales +16% at its Blue Buffalo unit (exp. 15%), backs FY20 Adj. EPS forecast of 3-5% growth and revenue growth of 1-2%. Leidos (LDOS) announced it is to acquire Dynetics, a privately owned company who is an industry-leading applied research and national security solutions company, for a cash value of USD 1.65bln. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) announced the launch of its long term, real-world evidence study of Emgality, labelled TRIUMPH, to evaluate the drug in comparison to other migraine treatments. Twitter, Inc. (TWTR) had its PT cut by Citibank to USD 36 from USD 45 over concerns on the near-term revenue outlook, adding ongoing issued with its promotion for the mobile app could hit the company’s revenues. ViacomCBS (VIAC) CBS unit is being sued by a Female 60-minutes producer for discrimination, as she claims she was side-lined after reporting her boss texted her an inappropriate photo. (NY Times) Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) has extended its CEO contract for Matt Maddox through to 2022.
OTHER
Allegheny Tech (ATI) announced Don P. Newman will join the co. as Senior VP and CFO, succeeding Pat DeCourcy, who will remain as SVP and Special Advisor to CEO until March 31st. Newman has more than 30 years of corporate finance and accounting leadership experience at high-growth businesses in a variety of industries, including metals and materials, energy, software, and drilling services. (Street Insider) Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) has signed a binding merger agreement with Peugeot (UG FP) owner PSA for a 50/50 deal, which creates the 4th largest automaker by volume and 3rd largest in revenue, valued at USD 50bln. FCAU agrees to distribute a special dividend of EUR 5.5bln to its shareholders. The CEO of FCAU, Mike Manley, will remain as part of the group, although it is unclear in what position. Lionsgate (LGF.A) announced a strategic alliance with Bharti Airtel and Starzplay to provide premium content from Lionsgate Play to customers in India. Pacific Gas & Electric (PCG) submitted a comprehensive, multi-party settlement agreement to the California Public Utilities Commission, aka CPUC, in relation to the wildfires in 2017-18 striking a USD 1.78bln settlement, although it bans recovering money from customers and was accepted by a US bankruptcy judge. Voya Financial (VOYA) announced it has entered into an agreement to sell its Individual Life and other legacy non-retirement annuities businesses to Resolution Life Group Holdings. Voya forecasts a normalised adj. operating EPS to reach 1.80-1.90 quarterly by the end of 2021 and estimates it will provide roughly USD 1.7bln of deployable capital Of note for Casino/gaming names (LVS, MGM, MLCO, WYNN), PBoC announced it will raise the remittance limit on individuals transfer of money from Macau to mainland Chinese accounts to CNY 80,000 per day from CNY 50,000.
As there seems to be a bit of a controversy surrounding the location, as well as some misunderstandings regarding travel to the upcoming Legacy GP in Niagara Falls. I thought I might post a few helpful hints for those interested in attending. I don’t think that this is as bad as the letter from Hipsters of the Coast described, so I figured I’d at least break down the travel and entertainment portion.
Travel to Region:
The two nearest major airports are Buffalo/Niagara International Airport (BUF), and Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ). The venue is about 30 Minutes from BUF, and 1 to 2 hours from YYZ. Be aware, you will need a passport to cross into the New York side from Canada. You can get direct flights to Buffalo from a number of major US cities, including NYC, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa, and others See this link for a more exhaustive list. If you plan on driving to the region, the main interstate leading there will be Interstate 90. If you plan on driving from the New York Metro area, I can give you shortcuts and a list of known speed traps if
Hotels
There are many hotels in Niagara Falls, however as it is a tourist destination, they can be quite expensive. Fortunately, there are also many hotels available in the northern Buffalo suburbs (Northtowns), particularly in Amherst near the University at Buffalo, as well as a smaller number of budget options in Tonawanda, NY. As that weekend is not a weekend for any major events at UB, hotels nearby should be reasonably priced. Here’s a small sampling
Local Travel
If you are driving, be aware the quickest route to the venue will be through Grand Island, and has tolls on either side of the bridge ($1 each way). The bridge has been converted to cashless tolling, so if you don’t have EZPass, you will be mailed a bill for the toll. The longer way to the venue would be to take Niagara Falls Blvd through the Northtowns and around the bridge into Niagara County. This will add significant time to your travel however as this is a local street and has many traffic lights. Alternatively, Uber and Lyft both operate in the Buffalo/Niagara region. An estimated Uber or Lyft from the Northtowns runs in the $30 Range each way. Parking at the venue will run $20 per car.
Meals and Entertainment
For meals, while you are in the area I recommend you try three things. If you want to get something quick, I recommend one of two options – Mighty Taco or the prepared foods section at one of the many Wegmans locations around the area. For more of a sit down, there are many places to try the two main local foods. Wings and Beef on Weck. I could say where I prefer to obtain them, but everyone in the area has an opinion on which place has the best of each. If you are observing Lent on Good Friday, there are numerous places that specialize in Fried Haddock around the area. You’ll see signs for Friday Fish-Fry all over the place. As for nightlife, it has been quite a few years since I last went out in the area, but there are a number of bar districts in Buffalo and Niagara Falls and a large amount of bars in between. I’ll leave this to a local to give better options. You can also go out on the Canada side of the Falls, where the drinking age is lower. Be forewarned Do not drive drunk across the border. Honestly, don’t ever drive drunk, but DUIs are a felony in Canada. Also, if you go out in Canada, you will need a passport to get back across the border. Since at heart, Magic players are gamblers, there is a Casino within walking distance of the venue as well as one across the border. For more adult forms of entertainment, I won’t give specifics, but ask around, the locals refer to something called The Canadian Ballet.
Odds and Ends
There is plenty of shopping around if needed. If you are a smoker, you can obtain duty free cigarettes, but it requires a border crossing. I’m sure I’m missing some things; I’ll be happy to respond to other questions if I know the answer. If there are WNY locals reading and care to add anything, correct anything, or respond to questions I don’t know, I’m happy for them to do so.
As there seems to be a bit of a controversy surrounding the location, as well as some misunderstandings regarding travel to the upcoming Legacy GP in Niagara Falls. I thought I might post a few helpful hints for those interested in attending. I don’t think that this is as bad as the letter from Hipsters of the Coast described, so I figured I’d at least break down the travel and entertainment portion.
Travel to Region:
The two nearest major airports are Buffalo/Niagara International Airport (BUF), and Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ). The venue is about 30 Minutes from BUF, and 1 to 2 hours from YYZ. Be aware, you will need a passport to cross into the New York side from Canada. You can get direct flights to Buffalo from a number of major US cities, including NYC, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Tampa, and others See this link for a more exhaustive list. If you plan on driving to the region, the main interstate leading there will be Interstate 90. If you plan on driving from the New York Metro area, I can give you shortcuts and a list of known speed traps if
Hotels
There are many hotels in Niagara Falls, however as it is a tourist destination, they can be quite expensive. Fortunately, there are also many hotels available in the northern Buffalo suburbs (Northtowns), particularly in Amherst near the University at Buffalo, as well as a smaller number of budget options in Tonawanda, NY. As that weekend is not a weekend for any major events at UB, hotels nearby should be reasonably priced. Here’s a small sampling
Local Travel
If you are driving, be aware the quickest route to the venue will be through Grand Island, and has tolls on either side of the bridge ($1 each way). The bridge has been converted to cashless tolling, so if you don’t have EZPass, you will be mailed a bill for the toll. The longer way to the venue would be to take Niagara Falls Blvd through the Northtowns and around the bridge into Niagara County. This will add significant time to your travel however as this is a local street and has many traffic lights. Alternatively, Uber and Lyft both operate in the Buffalo/Niagara region. An estimated Uber or Lyft from the Northtowns runs in the $30 Range each way. Parking at the venue will run $20 per car.
Meals and Entertainment
For meals, while you are in the area I recommend you try three things. If you want to get something quick, I recommend one of two options – Mighty Taco or the prepared foods section at one of the many Wegmans locations around the area. For more of a sit down, there are many places to try the two main local foods. Wings and Beef on Weck. I could say where I prefer to obtain them, but everyone in the area has an opinion on which place has the best of each. If you are observing Lent on Good Friday, there are numerous places that specialize in Fried Haddock around the area. You’ll see signs for Friday Fish-Fry all over the place. As for nightlife, it has been quite a few years since I last went out in the area, but there are a number of bar districts in Buffalo and Niagara Falls and a large amount of bars in between. I’ll leave this to a local to give better options. You can also go out on the Canada side of the Falls, where the drinking age is lower. Be forewarned Do not drive drunk across the border. Honestly, don’t ever drive drunk, but DUIs are a felony in Canada. Also, if you go out in Canada, you will need a passport to get back across the border. Since at heart, Magic players are gamblers, there is a Casino within walking distance of the venue as well as one across the border. For more adult forms of entertainment, I won’t give specifics, but ask around, the locals refer to something called The Canadian Ballet.
Odds and Ends
There is plenty of shopping around if needed. If you are a smoker, you can obtain duty free cigarettes, but it requires a border crossing. I’m sure I’m missing some things; I’ll be happy to respond to other questions if I know the answer. If there are WNY locals reading and care to add anything, correct anything, or respond to questions I don’t know, I’m happy for them to do so.
Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u] (0-3 in free bets for 0u change)
Parlays: 0-0 [0u]
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u](\**Missed the big teaser at the casino by AZ +8.5 for an 88u win*****)*
Notes: Overall, a good opening week for us. The algo is still low on data so betting an early week and getting a win is a nice confidence boost that the algo is on track. Missed that AZ game out of hubris. Just saw Cam ruled out and Kyler Murray putting up fights and just rolled with it with little research. My error. I am grateful it happened early in the season so I can correct it. Outside of that, really happy with the outcome of the Eagles game. Lets move on to week 4! Early Games (1pm) Carolina @ Houston (-4): Well, my recent fuck up is the best place to start. :D Carolina looked like a real football team last week. I don't know yet if it was the QB change, or the fact that they played in a dome against a bottom of the league team, but there will be no more sleeping on Kyle Allen. Let the data collection begin! So far all we have is the game last week, and his start in week 17 last year. With this he is 2-0 and has thrown 6 TDs 0 Ints. Looks pretty good, but we cant just mentally give him Cam's job until we see how he handles adversity in difficult match ups once other teams have more film on him. But, as long as he keeps up a solid game managing TD to INT ratio, his stout pass D and above average running game should give him many opportunities to win in his next few starts. Houston came through for us last week with a road dog money line upset of the Chargers. They had to grind it out with rivers going 5-15 on 3rd downs and throwing 46 times but both sides of the ball did their job. This should turn out to be a good defensive battle. I would look for a lot of Sacks in this game as both teams like to send pressure. As long as their aren't a ton of D/ST scores, this looks to play to the under. ***Interesting note: Panthers DE Bruce Irvin will make his season debut Sunday after missing the first three games with a hamstring injury**.** \*** Cleveland @ Baltimore(-7): Our first divisional match up of the day. Both are coming off losses. Cleveland on prime time to an undefeated Rams team and Baltimore to an undefeated Chiefs team. No real injuries to note. These teams seem to have opposite identities at the moment. Cleveland has a pretty decent D, even with some minor injuries, but their offense has struggled to find rhythm. Baltimore has a pretty legit offense, but their D isn't the same as we are used to. I mean, with a Baltimore D of old, this team taking early leads would be unstoppable. But they let Kyler Murray come in and stay within a TD. Personally, I hope Baltimore SMOKEs Cleveland. I want them to take a division lead, get the public against Cleveland. Then watch Cleveland go 1-2 in October with a Loss, Win, Loss. Then they will be 2-5 overall and hopefully we will get GREAT odds on them to win the division. Then they win out the year with a laughable schedule and go 11-5 and 5-1 in the division. That's the plan! :D Washington @ New York Giants (-3): Another divisional match up. This one with probably zero playoff implications. Barring Danny Dimes somehow being the next Mahommes and scoring 30 points a game, I cant see how this game matters to the league this year. Even IF double D scored 30 points a game, the Giants D is bad enough they still might lose those games. Washington is 0-3. They were just obliterated by the Bears on MNF last week. Keenum had like 12 INTs? This is going to be a battle of spirit IMO. The spirit of desperation by the Redskins vs. the new kid on the block in NY playing his first home game as a regular season starter. I like the way DD came out and handled the pressure. He even did it with Barkley going down (now out 4-6 weeks). But I dont like how bad the Giants secondary is. I think there is a better chance of Keenum making up for his performance last week by coming out strong against this Giants D, than there is of DD carrying the team to another win off pure Spirit. But spirit is a powerful thing! If there was no spread, i would have to side with the Giants...but give me 3 points in what I think is an evenly bad match up? It may swing me to the road dog. For now though, I dont see much edge on the spread and will probably just observe. HOWEVER! I did like how DD and Evan Ingram were in sync. Ingram is +200 to get a 100yd game and he is already 2 for 3 this year. Also, the over is getting bet hard so I look for opportunities for him. L.A. Chargers @ Miami(+14.5): Well, well, well. One of my favorite spots in the NFL. A West Coast team traveling to the far East Coast to play a 1pm game. The Chargers are coming off a tough home loss to the Texans last week. The algo predicted it, which was nice for us, but the chargers lead for a good while, so I am sure it was even more stingy of a loss. Now they travel all the way to Miami to play a team with probably the worst 3 game start in NFL history. However. TWO things for me in this game. One: Rozen isn't bad. He played well, but his receivers currently drop more balls than they catch. He gave them a chance to take the lead near the end of the 1st half vs. Dallas. They faded in the second half, but they came out strong. Two: If you followed me last year, you will know I love betting against the west coast team in the first quartehalf when they are traveling east for a 1pm game. Their brains think its 10am and they are just a step slower to start the game. On the chargers side of the ball, Melvin Gordon has ended his holdout. He won't play this game, but is expected to play week 5. Austin Eckler will probably be taking his last shot as a starter for a while. I expect him to run with purpose. He also has the opportunity to do it against a Miami D that, well, I don't think I need to say more. :P Oakland @ Indy(-7): Oakland opened the season strong with a win against Denver but has since suffered back to back crushing losses to playoff teams. Indy is 2-1 but could just as easily be 0-3. Brissett is managing and the Indy D is pretty legit. TY Hilton is doubtful for this game. Darren Waller is just 8 receptions away from beating Antonio Gates for the best 4 game start for a TE in NFL history. This feels like an Indy win, OAK cover type spot but I wouldn't sleep on OAK to get a potential upset. Kansas City @ Detroit(+6.5/7/7.5): Both teams are undefeated with DET blowing an easy game against Arizona to give up a tie. All three of the NJ sites i frequent have a different line. I am finding this game one of the more difficult to judge. My gut instinct says Patty cakes is out there baking cakes. But I can't understand why there is enough favor on the DET side to keep this game from moving up to -8. I mean, so far over 80% of the spread tickets are on KC. Usually that should call for some more balance. But there was a lot of trouble pushing it through the key number of 7 so that has me weary of the spread. My spot for a bet? Travis Kelce has games of 88, 107, and 89 yards recieving this year. His O/U is 82.5 in a game that has a very high points total. I feel like he is almost always good for a 20yrd reception so really I am looking at a number closer to 65. https://preview.redd.it/nox0a2m0lfp31.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2ab47de3fc7a95a5fff6f6f18622ce1e9f1b517 New England @ Buffalo (+7): Dildo Time. Two 3-0 teams face for a KEY Divisional match up. It's safe to say there is a very strong chance both of these teams go 4-0 against the other 2 teams in the division. If Buffalo can steal away an early divisional game, they could really give themselves hope and excitement. Unfortunately for them they are facing the Patriots who's defense has yet to give up a TD against opposing offenses and a Patriots offense that is demolishing teams so far. I know the Bills are 3-0 and I normally loooove home dogs, but I just cant take the points here. To be honest, I can see another dildo game. HUGE expectations on the Bills, Brady comes in a wrecks them, dildos everywhere. Here's a tweet that has me thinking for dildos. https://twitter.com/ChrisBrownBills/status/1177315496183631873?s=20 Tennessee @ Atlanta (-3.5): The final game of the 1pm slate. The Titans are what they have been in previous years. Inconsistent. They opened the season with a fantastic road win against the hyped Browns. Then lost a close Divisional game to the Colts before following that up with another Divisional loss vs. the Mustache. Atlanta has followed the same pattern of inconsistency of wins by getting blown out in their opener and upsetting the Eagles in game 2 and throwing away an opportunity to beat the Colts in week 3 by giving up an early lead and throwing a Key pick that could have given them a shot at a win. There are two things in this game that will have me side with the road dog. One: The Falcons lost S Keanu Neal. Two: The Titans have had a few extra days to prepare since their last game was a Thursday game. Afternoon Games (4pm) Seattle @ Arizona (+5/5.5): Both spreads are available to me, so its just a matter of if I like SEA or AZ. Seattle is coming off a disappointing home loss to the Brees-less Saints and sits at 2-1. Arizona is 0-3. Russel Wilson played spectacularly, but the Saints D/ST won the game for them building an early lead. Seattle tried to battle back and put up a valiant effort but fell short on time. Arizona looked like they could compete in weeks 1 and 2, but in week 3 lost a home game to a win-less team with a backup QB. There are some for sure props to look at in this game IMO. Cardinals are horrible against TEs giving up 131 and TD, 112 and a TD, and 75 and 2TDs. TE Will Dissly receptions and yards have progressed as follows: 1rec-12yds-0tds, 5rec-50yds-2tds, 6rec-62yds-1td. I think he is becoming a key target for Rus this year. They have also been burned by Stafford for 22yds rushing and Jackson for 120 rushing. I like Russ to have many opportunities to get his. Tampa Bay @ LA Rams (-9): The Bucs are 1-2 coming off a disappointing last second missed 34 yard field goal to give DD his first win in his first start. The Rams are 3-0 coming off beating the Browns. I mean TB has a decent pass rush with Barrett, but their secondary is pretty bad, allowing the Giants to come back and win that game. I think this is a perfect opportunity for the Rams to get rolling on offense. I see them putting up base 27. So the question is, can the Bucs keep up to cover the spread and combined with that, can the Rams hold off garbage time points? Minnesota @ Chicago (-1.5): A HUGE divisional game with both teams needing the win having lost to Green Bay already. Minn is coming off a home game whooping of the Raiders while the Bears are coming off a road win whooping of the Redskins. Both teams have top ranked Ds and meh Os with the edge going to the Bears and the Vikings, respectively. I feel like this is going to be a heavy defensive game. Cook should finally be held under 100 yards rushing. Jacksonville @ Denver(-2.5/3): Jacksonville is coming off a win and some extra rest. Denver is still waiting for its first sack, and its first win. On the flip side, Jacksonville recorded NINE sacks last week. This game looks like it is shaping up to be just like the Jax/Hou game. Low scoring. This game might be a candidate to tease Jax up and the Under. As for props, DJ Chark has a TD in every game this season. If he gets one in Denver, he breaks the franchise record. Even thought its predicted a very low scoring game, I like that he is getting 2.6 to 1 to do so! Night Game(8:20pm) Dallas @ New Orleans(+2.5,3): This is one of the hardest games for me. The Cowboys are 3-0 and looking good. But they did it against mediocre competition. The saints are Brees-less but are coming off a great D/ST performance and a game managed win for Bridgewater. Though the Saints have complained about bad calls a decent amount and they are the Third most penalized team this year so far, they do have a favorable crew tonight. "The crew working Sunday's game is led by official Carl Cheffers. Cheffers has been a crew chief since 2008, and, according to Payton, has worked 13 Saints games since 2006. The Saints record over that time with this crew: 12-1. " My gut tells me, if Brees didn't get hurt and the Saints entered this game 3-0 with Brees, the spread would be somewhere between Saints -3 and Saints -6.5. Is Brees going down worth a 6-9 point shift? Probably not. Given Bridgewater has a decent record and he's not the only QB for the Saints. Honestly, how is the over getting so much action?! Both teams have legit Defenses. These two played last year with Brees and it was a heavy under hit. That game Kamara and Ingram got nowhere and Dak and Dallas could throw the ball but they had trouble converting in the Red Zone. If a similar game script happens I could see Dallas having the edge this time given they have an added red zone threat in Jason Witton, and the Saints are without Brees. If you're going to bet this game, definitely shop for your number! Singles: 8-7-1 [+1.55u]
Evan Ingram 100+ Rec Yds (1.6u to win 3u)
Miami 1Q +3.5(2.3u to win 2u)
Austin Eckler 75+ Rus Yds (2.1u to win 2u)
Austin Eckler 125+ Rus Yds (.5u to win 2.13u)
Darren Waller 6.5 Reception Over (2.06u to win 2.53u)
Tyrell Williams to score a TD (.5u to win 1u)
Travis Kelce 82.5 Rec Yds (2.22u to win 2u)
New England -7 (2u to win 2u)
Buf/NE Will there be a Defensive TD YES (.5u to win 1.8u)
Tenn +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Russel Wilson 20.5 Yds Rush OVER (4.44u to win 4u)
Will Dissly 3.5 Receptions OVER (4.29u to win 3u)
Will Dissly 45.5 Yds OVER (2.22u to win 2u)
Chris Carson 65.5 Yds Rush OVER (.56u to win .5u)
Russel Wilson to score the first TD (.5u to win 11u)
D.J. Chark to Score a TD (0u to win 5.2u)Draftkings FreeBet
Parlays: 0-0 [0u]\**I recently received a 10u free bet on Draftkings NJ. All of these parlays are free bets****
Eagles +4, Kansas City ml, Baltimore ml, Rams ml, Patriots ml, Cowboys ml, Bengals +4 (0u to win 32.9u)My early week safe parlay (most scared of cowboys and bengals)
Eagles ml, Rams ml, Texans ml, Giants ml, Chiefs ml, Bills 1Q ml, Raiders ml (0u to win 218.1u)My early week gamble parlay (most scared of Giants and Raiders)
Titans ml, Rams ml, Pats ml, Dolphins 1Q +3.5, Kelce 82.5 Yds Over, Engram 5.5 Rec Over, Dissly 3.5 Rec Over, Waller 6.5 Rec Over, Chark 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 298.6u)For fun, mix and match with props, favorites, and underdogs.
Teasers: 2-2 [-1u]
I made a teaser but I have to take it into the Ocean tomorrow to place it. I will post it in the comments after I see if there are any scratches.
Before we head out to another weekend, let's take a moment to meet one of our fellow runnitors! This runner and I share some food and drink preferences, I can't wait to dig in and see what discussions get started from the answers below; let's all take a moment to meet u/Cavalcadence!
The Runner:
First name?
Alex
Age?
28
Where are you from?
I grew up about a half hour’s drive northeast of Buffalo, NY.
Occupation?
Marketing/Sales
Running Q&A's:
What are your PR's?
5K- 17:23 15K- 54:25 Half Marathon- 1:18:16 Full Marathon- 3:04:22
What is your distance PR?
The marathon
What's your highest weekly recorded mileage?
152 miles in the last full week of July 2018
What's your comfy pace?
6:45-7:15 per mile, depending on how I’m feeling that day.
How long have you been running?
First started in freshman year of HS in the Autumn 2004. Currently on a run streak that’s been going since March 9th, 2014.
Tell us why you began running?
Originally in high school I started because football wasn’t for me and a lot of people told me I should try running. They thought I would be good at it. Back then I didn’t think running around in circles qualified as a sport, but I started running, realized it was more than I thought it was and got the bug. After high school I attended a D1 school so I took for granted that running wasn’t in the cards for me. I was always decent in high school but that would have required a significant jump. I had a number of links to a running club at the school but as a commuter and someone who was regularly taking twenty-four or more credits a semester, I decided it didn’t make sense. Still ran early on in college on my own, but it was few and far between. I fell out of it for the most part between 2011 and 2013. In late 2013, my blood pressure was a little bit higher than I would have liked and I had just been through a breakup. I would take long walks and the occasional run as a stress reliever, and it was also a good way to think things through. Still, I wasn’t all that consistent. For one thing, I didn’t have an adequate watch, and I’ve always been very numbers-oriented as a runner. I got a new Garmin in February of 2014 which is when I started getting back into the swing of things. I had a thirteen day run streak going as I started March 8th, 2014, but between events I had planned that day, a spontaneous dinner after and a spontaneous hangout with friends after that, a run never materialized that day. From then on I made sure to get my mile in somehow, someway, every day. I had no idea I would take it as far as I have, but nearly five years and 18,700 miles later, here I am.
Most memorable running moment?
Back in high school I ran indoor track in the fall/winter and outdoor track in the spring. One of my coaches in indoor was eager for me to meet the XC coach who was also one of the outdoor coaches. One of the first things the latter did when I met him was to encourage me to buy running shoes. He said running in those “basketball shoes” was slowing me down. I went and bought a pair of shoes from Laux. He said “No, not those. Those are for sprinters. Go to Fleet Feet in Buffalo and they’ll help you.” I picked up a pair of Mizunos at Fleet Feet and dropped a minute off my mile time from one week to the next. Now I know all about running shoes. A close second would be the 100 mile relay I ran with seven friends back in 2010. Spending all day with a group of people as you run mile after mile in the heat is a lot of fun, and a great way to form a bond.
Do you have a running mantra?
“I will.” It’s all about making goals that are realistic but challenging and going after them. Whether it’s the run streak, a 5000-mile year or something else, if I get it in my head to do it, I will.
What time of day do you prefer to run?
I’m a night owl. I hate mornings. Most of the time I run in the afternoon or evening. I’ve been out for runs at 2 or 3 a.m. before. I even went for a 1 a.m. run six hours before my wisdom teeth removal in August of 2014. No way I was going to let the streak end there. On the flip side, most races are in the mornings, and most of the groups I’ve run with have morning runs, so I’ll suck it up and wake up early when I have to do so.
Any big races coming up?
I ran my first half marathon of the year last Saturday and have another five I’ve signed up for already. I’m also seriously considering another two. The next race on the docket is a ten-miler next month. The Chicago Marathon looms large in October. That should be a lot of fun. Still haven’t made up my mind between the Buffalo Marathon or Half Marathon in May.
What are your short-term running goals?
Earning a BQ that will actually stick. I’ve entered three times and missed the cutoff three times. Finding a race that’s not ridiculously hot and humid would help. All three of my marathon attempts have been in the most oppressively muggy weather and it’s not getting any easier. I also want to break the hour mark in a ten-miler. I did so during my two most recent half marathons, but I want to accomplish it in an actual ten-mile race. Last but not least, I would love to get my half marathon time below 1:15 this year. I’ve been aiming to break 1:20 for a while there, but last Saturday I ran a 1:18:16, a two-minute PR. Fantastic way to start the year. With some dedication and smart work I can hit 1:14:XX by year’s end.
What are your long-term running goals?
Keep that streak going as long as possible. Run each of the six marathon majors at least once. Hit the 100,000 mile mark someday.
What's one piece of running advice you’d give to the younger version of yourself?
I’ll pass. Not going to mess with the space-time continuum.
What is something you need to work on to become a better runner?
Interval training. Speed work is the only thing I’ve really been missing, and I can’t avoid it any longer.
What is your current shoe choice?
For races, the Vaporfly 4%. They’re incredible. The Pegasus Turbos are great for long training runs. Other personal favorites include the Mizuno Hitogami, Saucony Kinvara, Adidas Boston, New Balance Zante and Hoka One One Clifton. At this point I feel like I have a shoe store in my house.
Trail? Road? Track? Or Treadmill?
I’ll run pretty much anywhere. I’m mostly on the road, but I just got into trail running and love it. I also have the Erie Canal towpath right nearby and some bike paths as well. If I get bored running in my own town I just run to the next ones over. Now that I’m going to be starting speedwork, I’ll have to spend some time at the track again. I’m actually looking forward to it. I bought a treadmill back in early 2016 and have barely used it since that winter. I get frustrated with the time/distance on my watch and treadmill almost never matching. With that said, it was an amazing investment. Now if I look outside and everything’s covered in ice I have a choice: it’s go out into that, or run inside on the treadmill. I get outside every time, and I haven’t yet regretted it. So I give a genuine “thank you” to my treadmill.
What is your ideal running weather?
Mid-30s, cloudy, 10 mph wind, no precipitation. Give me shorts, short sleeves and a light pair of gloves and I’m golden.
Do you have any social media accounts you'd like to share?
What hobbies and interests do you have besides running?
I watch the Buffalo Bills every week they play and every week they don’t. If you know anything about the recent history of the Bills, you probably know what I mean. Not averse to a game of Rocket League now and then. Favorite shows include Game of Thrones, Community, Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Breaking Bad. Love the Marvel Cinematic Universe. And, like any good runner, I like my beer. And wine. And liquor. Favorite drink is a Manhattan. Best post-run meal might be a double order of sriracha wings with a pitcher of Yuengling or some Edmund Fitzgerald Porter.
Do you have any hidden talents?
Some people make you laugh, but I have honed the ability to make people groan. I will go to extreme lengths for the sake of the world’s dumbest pun. I have been accused of teleportation numerous times over the years, but I’m just inherently stealthy. I’m rather adept at making gummie bears and chocolate disappear.
Biggest pet peeve?
People smoking in public. Drivers who don’t look both ways before turning right on red. I also abhor the sound of chewing.
Dream job! What would it be?
Maybe something with a running shoe company? Not sure.
Favorite Quote or Poem?
“If the furnace is hot enough, anything will burn.”
What is your favorite movie?
Hard to pick one favorite, but The Grand Budapest Hotel and Inglourious Basterds are both high on the list.
What is your biggest character flaw?
If I had to narrow it down, I would probably say my competitive nature. It helps keep me focused with training and races, but not everything has to be a competition. Sometimes that’s a tough boundary to navigate.
What songs have you been listening to recently?
The latest Arctic Monkeys album Tranquility Base Hotel & Casino has been high on the list since it came out last year. AM have been one of my favorites for a decade now. Other albums currently getting a lot of playtime are …Like Clockwork by Queens of the Stone Age, Comedown Machine by The Strokes and Tame Impala’s Lonerism.
One Last Question:
What is the origin of your username?
I actually had another username on Reddit a few years back, but I forgot the password. I couldn’t think of anything good when I made my new account so I just combined the words “cavalcade” and “cadence.” I’ve never been great at creating usernames. You know what? Maybe that’s my greatest character flaw. .
Please tag u/Cavalcadence when asking a question in this thread.
December Community Day Across the Northeast Looking for a local meet-up for the January 2020 Community Day? Check out the Silph League Map ((https://thesilphroad.com/map#5/41.43/-69.69)) , and join a local server. Here are your local staff that will be distributing the limited time Silph Traveler Badges at each event. Be sure to set up your Traveler Card ( https://thesilphroad.com/travelers-cards) before attending your local meet-up. REMINDERS >Fusion CUP: Be sure to check out the https://silph.gg/map to find a Fusion Cup near you! (Listings and meet-up days subject to change. Please reach out to listed Discord Staff for most current info.)
CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 11 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/b88yp5srv9z31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40ca6e2ece3b36c915e55bf033c2c18ebab3ff4f Thursday Night Recap Singles: 2-2 (-0.02u)Soooo close! Personally I think the OBJ conspiracy was real. He had 10 targets (the most) and almost scored the first TD on their first drive. Not only did his TD get reviewed and overturned but soon after, Juju was taken out of the game. On to the next one! Parlay: 0-0 (0u)None BBDLS: 0-0 (0u)Nothing of note here. We put in a free bet and it is still live, but there are much harder games to clear on this one. Lets ride the wave! SBBDLS: 0-0 (0u)None Teasers: 0-0 (0u)None Sunday Games Dallas @ Detroit (-7): This weeks games opens up with a 1pm slate of games that are dooseys. Almost every one of these games feels like the favorite should win but they all have a reasonable percentage of underdog upsets. With Stafford playing the algo predicts this one 27-24 Dallas. But with no Stafford this game is going to rely on the Lions D and their backup QB. The Lions run d allows 4.6 ypc (22nd) and 130 ypg (26th). While their pass D averages giving up 272 ypg (27th) and a 100 passer rating (23rd). The Cowboys passing offense is 3rd in ypg, 4th in ypc, and 1st in ypa 1st. Last week Zeek had a horrible game vs min going 20 rushes for only 47 yards at 2.4 ypc... but he is still top 10 in rush yards with 78 per game. Some interesting stats to go with the Dallas run game:
Dallas has just five losses since Ezekiel Elliott entered the NFL three years ago in games in which Zeke rushes for at least 100 yards. The Cowboys are 4-1 this year when the former Ohio State star reaches triple-digits on the ground.
The Cowboys have covered 10 of their past 14 games after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
As for important injuries: Just three teams have allowed more passes of 20-plus yards this season than the Lions. Darius Slay should draw the assignment on Cooper, but the Lions are severely short-handed at safety with Tracy Walker out and Will Harris questionable with a groin injury. Backup right tackle Tyrell Crosby will be starting for the Lions and they may be without one of their best run defenders, Da’Shawn Han. In terms of props the model is looking at JD Mckissic receptions. Last game with Driskle starting he had 7 targets and 6 receptions. It appears Driskle likes to check down to him for safety. New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5): Just as the Dallas game, this game looks like it should be a win for the favorite just based upon the offense for the favorite vs the defense of the dog. However, there are definitely scenarios that have Tampa Bay coming away with an upset. The algo has this one as NO -2. Curiously it look-ahead around -7 and has moved down to settle in around 5. This is probably due to the fact the Saints were embarrassed last week by the Falcons. They came out of the bye with 0 energy and the Falcons took advantage. TB was able to pull through last week despite losing the turnover battle and trailing in the fourth. Tampa Bay's ability to protect the ball on offense and force a turnover on defense will be the key for a victory. "They’re 2-12 in games with 0 takeaways. When they force a takeaway, they’re 22-27. When they record exactly one takeaway, they’re 5-16. When they record exactly two, they’re 5-10. Three, as it turns out, is the magic number. When they record at least three, they’re 12-1. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, New Orleans almost never commits three turnovers in a game. In fact, the Saints haven’t done so since 2017, and they haven’t committed two in any game this season." Uncharacteristically, Brees was sacked 6 times last week. Now he is going against Shaquile Barret this week who has 11.5 sacks (1st). The Saints do have Kamara back, but the TB rush D is tops allowing only 78 ypg (1st) and 3.4 ypc (3rd). Brees will likely look to the air as Thomas is on fire, averaging over 100 ypg, and the Tampa Bay pass D ranks bottom of the league giving up an average 299 ypg (league worst) and an average 100 passer rating (24th). In terms of injuries, almost everyone is a go. The only notable injury is Saints Marshon Lattimore. He has been ruled out and this should really add to the TB abuse of the deep ball. The algo does favor the Saints to win, but I don't think I can lay the points on this one. Fun Fact: NFC South foes Tampa Bay and New Orleans have split their annual series every season since Jameis Winston entered the NFL. NO won the first meeting. Atlanta at Carolina (-5): My algo has this coming out at Carolina -7. I understand the movement as Atlanta got a huge upset last Sunday and Carolina lost by 2 inches. Before we jump into the stats, I think the most important information for this game is Carolina’s starting tackles, Dennis Daley and Greg Little are both questionable for the game. If they play, I see Kyle Allen having time to throw, CMC having holes to run through, and little resistance from an ATL secondary that ranks near the bottom in everything. However, if those tackles are out, ATL may be able to repeat last weeks performance (6 sacks and 11 QB hits) and give themselves opportunity at another big divisional upset. Other injuries to note: The Falcons will be without tight end Austin Hooper, their receptions (56) and receiving touchdown (six) leader who is out with an MCL sprain. The Panthers will be without defensive back Ross Cockrell (quad), who has played a big role in a variety of positions in the secondary. But, for the Panthers, cornerback James Bradberry back. I am leaning towards Carolina here and while the focus will be on CMC, I think the edge can be found with the WR's in this one. Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-2.5): Whoa. Two completely different QBs than the previous week for both teams. It looks as if Brissett is back for the Colts, and after 9 weeks with no BDN, Nick Foals returns. My algo has this game at 22-22 with some HFA to be added in for Indy. This looks like what Vegas got too because they made the spread -3 (hfa on a pk) and the total around 44. Looks like they don't know how to handle the QB change and decided to let the market dictate the price. The Jags are coming off a bye and see the return of wide receiver Dede Westbrook (neck), cornerback D.J. Hayden (neck) and linebacker Quincy Williams (hamstring). Both teams have rush defenses that rank in the bottom of the league, but on the flip side, both teams have rushing offenses that are pretty good. With Jax having the clear edge here. A key stat to note for the Jax rush defense is they are 4-0 when holding opponents under 100 yards rushing...but they are 0-5 when they dont. Without TY Hilton again this week to help stretch the field, I feel like JAX will be able to stack the box and keep the rush yards for IND to a minimum. Denver at Minnesota (-10): This is another game where I dont think Vegas knows how to cap it. My algo came out with 15-25 MIN. They Vegas spread is -10 with a total of 40. It seems they know the public will like MIN just seeing them come off a win on prime time. As you have probably guessed, my gut leans DEN as I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS parlay. Let's look into the game to see what else is going on. First, we see Denver coming off a bye. Yet another QB named with the last name Allen hopped into the NFL, replacing the injured Joe Flacco and he was 12-of-20 passing for 193 yards and two touchdowns while beating the Cleveland Browns in his first career start. Then, he went into a bye week, giving him double time to get in sync with the plays and the receivers. You know what, there are stats that say the Vikings offense is legit, and the Broncos D is legit. They both have decent running games and run defenses. I'd say the key here is if Min can pressure the young QB. If they can...its a wrap. If they can't? I see Denver with an easy cover and possibly an upset. NY Jets at Washington (-2.5) This is a curious coin flip of two bottom of the barrel teams this year. The Jets are coming of a win and the Redskins are coming off a bye. This feels like an under game. My algo has this at 20-20 but there is no adjustment for Haskins yet. He has had an extra week to prepare, but the Redskins tend to rely on AP to generate some running game. He will be going against a Jets run D that is L.E.G.I.T. giving up only 3ypc (best in the league) and 82 ypg (2nd). The Redskins run game will an added boost in Guice who will be returning. Honestly, all the numbers lean Jets favor. However... everywhere I look 70-75% of the bets are on the Jets...and the number keeps pushing in their favor. This is usually a big red flag to take the opposite of the majority! Buffalo at Miami (+6.5): My algo has this 22-20 Buffalo. This is an interesting rematch of a divisional battle. This time though Frank Gore will be returning home to battle his old team in front of his family. Also Jordan Phillips, Bills defensive tackle is returning to where he was originally drafted. He is having a monster year, so watch out! Looking at the Bills offense, it has been pretty mediocre. However, it will be facing a Dolphins defense that ranks bottom in almost everything. ( 31st in points allowed, 29th in total yards, and 30th in sacks per attempt ) Im sure the Bills would like to see their RBs get it going in this match up, but the MIA run d hasn't been that bad. If you take out the games against Baltimore and Dallas (they gave up 500 rush yards in those two combined) then they only averaging giving up 116 per game. If they can hold Buffalo under 100 yards, the potential for an upset exists. The Bills have only ONE win in the 14 games where they failed to rush for at least 100 yards since Sean McDermott took over as coach. They had only 84 last week in Cleveland. Houston at Baltimore (-4.5): Oooo, this is probably going to be my favorite game of the 1pms. I rarely watch the games, but I am excited to see these teams match up. My algo has this game Bal -4.5. Lining right up with the Vegas spread. Will Fuller has been ruled out for HOU. I dont have analysis for this because Baltimore should be leading in most if not all categories. But I am going to give my gut play here and its ride with the Texans. No analysis, just gut. Arizona at San Fransico (-9.5) Another divisional rematch. This one is interesting because it has seen a pretty big line movement. It opened in most places as high as -14. But has moved to settle around 9.5/10. My algo actually has this as SF -12.5, however that doesn't account for any injuries...of which the 49ers seem to have in spades. The Niners will be without running back Matt Breida, Joe Staley, and kicker Robbie Gould. Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair has been ruled out as he has not cleared the concussion protocol. Defensive lineman D.J. Jones has a groin injury that will sideline him this week. Emmanuel Sanders is hurt but looks to play and Kittle is listed as doubtful but who knows, we saw him dominate the last game vs AZ after his knee got reversed. Honestly, almost every article I read said the same thing. 49ers are mad injured, played 5 quarters on Monday and lost, and now play a divisional opponent on a short week that they only beat by 3 points just 2 weeks ago, bet the Cards to cover and possibly upset. That was my original train of thought too. Then I looked at the public betting percentages. Everywhere you look, 2 out of 3 spread tickets are on the Cards with some places over 70%. Yet the line has had a ton of trouble breaking 10 and with all that love for AZ you'd think it would drop to 7.5/8.5. Because of this, it appears the edge may actually be with the home team to win a blowout. Should be interesting to see what happens! New England @ Philadelphia (+4.5): An interesting match up here. My algo has this 24-21 NE. Both teams are coming off a bye with limited injuries. The Pats will be without safety Chung, and the Eagles will be without darren sproles, alshon jeffery and deshean jackson. Jordan Mathews is questionable, but Ajayi was signed his week to help with RB depth. What makes this pick really hard is even with all these injuries to the Eagles and Bellichek's after a bye win percentage, AND 80% of the picks being on NE...the line has only moved a point, a point and a half a most. How big are the bets on the Eagles right now to keep the line from ballooning? The Eagles run d is legit, but their secondary is still crap. The Pats D was exposed last week but that was vs an MVP caliber QB lead offense. How has this line not moved?! I want to bet the Pats so bad, but there is this thread pulling at me to take the Eagles. Choose with care here boys. Cincinatti @ Oakland (-11.5): There isn't much to say here. Cincy is winless and starting a backup QB that was destroyed last week. Oakland has some energy. They fought through a grueling road schedule and now get some rest at home. But, 11.5 points for an OAK team this year just seems like too much. And 11.5 for a cincy team with a back up QB on the road when he just lost by 40 at home...cant do it. The algo has this 24-18 OAK but thats not adjusted for the new QB. Honestly I dont have an adjustment for him because I dont know who he is! I am riding OAK to win in some parlays but points are tough. Knock on wood if you're with me. :D Chicago @ LA Rams(-6): Last game of the day. Prime time NFC match up. While both of these teams are technically still live for a wild card spot, I don't think either will realistically make it. The Rams have a shot if they can win here AND win vs Dallas and Seattle but honestly I dont see that happening this year. Crazy enough, my algo has this game 21-20 Bears... I think if Montgomery is a go for CHI this game is much tighter. But if he sits, I dont see the offense for the Bears having as much rhythm. Monday Night Kansas City vs LA Chargers (+4): I dont normally add the Monday game into these write ups, but since I will have this team in my parlays and teasers, I decided to add it. I am betting this for only one piece of info I heard. (My algo actually likes the opposite side here) This game is in Mexico City. The elevation there is higher than Denver. The Chargers spent all week practicing in Denver to get their bodies acclimated to the elevation. Kansas City has stayed home. With as bad as the KC defense is, the elevation factor, and 4 points...I will be siding with old man Rivers to 2nd half comeback and cover. (and possibly win!) Note:We have approx 17u in Bonus money from Refer-A-Friend Bonus. Also, Borgata Sportsbook emailed me this week and offered me 10u in free bets just because I made an account there a year ago and never played. Unlike alllll the other sites in NJ, it does have a rollover. It is 6x, so I will use these free bets on only parlays that way if I hit one, I will have extra funds to hit the rollover without playing it for many weeks. Going really basic this week. Mostly spreads. Singles 73-72-2 (+26.78u)
DAL -7 (1.15u to win 1u)
TB +5 (1.1u to win 1u)
JAX +2.5 (1.06u to win 1u)
DEN +10.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Hou ml (1.3u to win 2.5u)
SF -10 ( (1.1u to win 1u)
Josh Jacobs +125 Rush yards (0u to win 4u)
CHI +6Both Chi and LAC I will wait till closer to game time. I feel like both spreads might get the extra half point at some point throughout the day.
LAC +4
Parlays: 4-8 (+40.45u)
JAX +3.5, Dal -2.5, SF -2.5 OAK -2, LAC +4 (0u to win 35.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-7 (-6.47u)
CLE ml, JAX ml, DEN ml, CAR ml, MIA ml, OAK ml, LAC ml, CHI ml (0u to win 2077u)OOOO baby, what are we thinking here? :D
DAL ml, NO ml, DEN +10.5, HOU +4.5, JAX +2.5, SF ml, OAK ml, CHI +6.5, LAC +4.5 (0u to win 160u)
DAL ml, WAS ml, DEN +10.5, HOU +4.5, TB +5.5, JAX +2.5, SF ml, OAK ml, CHI +6.5, LAC +4.5 (0u to win 376.6u)
Jax +3.5, Den +10.5, NYJ +2.5, HOU +4.5, NO -5.5, DAL -6.5, SF -11.5, PHL +3.5, CIN +10.5, CHI +6.5, LA +4.5 (0u to win 1046.3u)
DEN +4.5, BUF -12.5, JAX -5.5, DAL -14.5, CHI -2.5 (0u to win 348.9u)
CAR ml, JAX ml, MIA ml, DEN ml, NYJ ml, HOU ml, DAL -6.5, PHL ml, OAK ml, CHI ml, LAC ml (0u to win 14185u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-6 (-3u)
Its 11 am now, Im going to go to the Ocean Casino @ 12 and put one of these in. As usual, if it make it past the early games, I will post a pic for the sweat!
Teasers: 6-15 (-21.3u)
Its 11 am now, Im going to go to the Ocean Casino @ 12 and put one of these in. As usual, if it make it past the early games, I will post a pic for the sweat!
Futures
NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u)This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring)
CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 8 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/6z3pm7zaa3v31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0b4ba60258e70d1ea5457bcd2111b890f81fa60 Hi all! We have a wonderful Sunday slate ahead, first lets recap TNF. Singles: 3-0 (+9.78u) Parlay: 0-2 (-2u) BBDLS: none Teasers: none Notes: This was an amazing little set for us. We were able to go 3-0 and cash in on the Cook to score the first TD @ over +300. I added in those two late parlays with Washington either winning or covering 4.5. Honestly, even after watching the game, I still think plays on WAS were profitable. Before Keenum went down, WAS had a real shot in that game. On to this Sundays games! Early Games (1pm) New York @ Detroit (-6/6.5): To start the day, we have a battle of two sub .500 teams. The Giants are coming off a heart breaker (at least to me, haha) They allowed the Cardinals to come in and deliver an upset victory even though the Giants were coming off increased rest and had some key players returning. Detroit's season so far has been surrounded in a cloud of shit. Maybe the first game of the season should have been an indicator of how their season will play out. Look really good coming out of the gate, but overall fail to live up to the start. They will look to halt their recent stumbles against a Giants offence that has 18 turnovers (worst in the league!). On the flip side, the Giants will probably look to use the return of Saquan to exploit the Lions rush D that gives up an average 4.8 ypc (26th) and 140 ypg on ground (28th). Some notable injuries include: Sterling Shepherd is still out for the Giants, and Kerryon Johnson is out for the Lions after injuring his knee in the game last week against the Vikings. Another notable piece missing will be Quandre Diggs. The lions traded him to Seattle this week in exchange for a 2020 fifth-round pick. This game is going to be about the start. My algo is favoring DET by a TD, but DET hasn't beaten anyone yet by more than 3 points and with their recent struggles and poor run D... NY has the potential to get a lead and lean on their run game, I think a pure upset is possible here. Golden Tate is returning to Detroit and has been a steady look for Jones since his insertion into the Lions offense with a steady increase in targets. (week 5 (6) week 6 (9) week 7 (11)) Tampa Bay @ Tennessee (-2.5): Here we have the well rested Bucs coming off of a loss in London and then a bye week. While the Titans have had a small roller coaster over the last few weeks. They were sliding and ultimately replaced Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. The change of QB ignited a boost from the offense (putting up 400 last week) that was previously lacking in a downfield attack. Other than the Bucs missing TE OJ Howard, there aren't any serious, notable injuries. So, Tennessee does have Derrick Henry...but, the Bucs have a The BEST run D, giving up only 2.9 ypc and 68 ypg (1st in both!) However, the Bucs pass D is atrocious and overall the Bucs have given up 30+ points in EVERY game this year except one. Emotionally it feels like the Titans should be riding high. The change of QB sparked the offense, and the Titans D has made THREE goal line stands this year, in the final minute of games, for wins each time. The Titans D is also sporting a very respectable 16 ppg given up to opposing offense. (good for 4th in the league) The Algo has TB -1 here so its a very curious spread. Usually in these low spread coin flip spots I either stay away or play both sides in separate plays. Looking props, I would look to Cory Davis and AJ Brown (WRs for TEN) who with the QB change went for a combined 12 catches for 144 yards off only 15 targets last game...and this game they are facing the TB secondary that is giving up over 300 ypg in the air. L.A. Chargers @ Chicago (-3.5/-4): Here we have a classic battle of two teams who preseason were favorites to make the playoffs. Now, less than halfway through the season, it looks as if both teams will be looking ahead to next year. The Chargers are coming off a really tough loss to the Titans last week where it looked like the Chargers scored 3 times to win the game, but none of the attempts ended up counting. The Bears are coming off a blowout loss to the Saints (who were somehow underdogs even though they have been dominant) The Bears offense just doesn't have it. Mitch looks great when the opposing D drops into prevent and gives him time to find open guys...but other than that, he is really struggling. First let's look at notable injuries: LAC: Melvin Ingram (hamstring) is expected to return after missing the last three games and (LT) Russell Okung (pulmonary embolism) will make his season debut after experiencing major health issues during the off season. CHI: Chicago CB Sherrick McManis (concussion) likely will miss the game after being injured against the Saints. Alright, so if Mitch is going to get back on track and show his owners he deserves to stay on this team, the Chargers D is a good spot for him to do it. The Charges D is near the bottom in almost everything [Comp % (32nd), QBR (28th), YPA (29th)]. They only give up 216 ypg in the air., but that's only vs 185 attempts (3rd fewest in the league). On the other side, the Bears D is still pretty good in every category. They only falter in one, Completion Percentage (69%) which is 27th in the league. In props we are looking at both RBs for this game. Last week Eckler went: 7 rec, 118 yds and a TD and is tied for 3rd most receptions in the NFL! To add to that, the Bears have given up the 5th most yards to receiving backs. On the other side we have Cohen who gets a ton of opportunity for receptions. Note:Sooo, an interesting stat I came across: Betting the Chargers on the road vs. a team with a better win, would have you sitting at % 22-4 ATS, and if you had teased them you would be 26-0. This is the Chargers over the last 5 years Seattle @ Atlanta (+7): Soo, it is currently 2:30 pm on Saturday and as I am writing this, most of the online books here in NJ took this game down. The line was originally floating around 3.5/4, now it is only available at 7 on two sites. I am assuming this is because ATL activated their QB3 indicating Ryan has a great chance of being inactive. In injury news: " The Falcons cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss his third straight game with a toe injury. Rookie Kendall Sheffield will get the start in Trufant’s place. The Falcons will also be without guard James Carpenter (knee) and running back Ito Smith, who is in concussion protocol. For Seattle, defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson (oblique) and safety Delano Hill (elbow) have been declared out. The problem for the Seahawks is that they have six players listed as questionable, including recent acquire, Quandre Diggs. Lets start with the obvious, the Falcons D. Atlanta run D is actually pretty good, holding opposing RBs to under 4 ypc and 70 ypg. But, their secondary is trash, bottom of the league in almost everything: QBR 31st, ypg 28th, comp % 29th. The Seattle D is not the defense of old. They average giving up 25 ppg and 360 ypg. However, they are top 10 in takeaways this year with 12 and the ATL offense has 12 turnovers already. On the other side, even with losing to Baltimore last week, SEA O ranks in the top 10 in: qbr 2nd, ypg 10th, comp % 8th, and ypa. Going against that ATL D, the edge definitely sits with SEA. In props, the look is on Austin Hooper. He has had minimum 4 receptions per game, is averaging over 7, and should get an increase in his looks with ATL trading away their WR2 in Sanu. Denver @ Indianapolis (-4.5/-5): This is one of the most curious lines to me. The algo has the Colts at only -4. Public perception should have the colts at -7/7.5. Yet the line opened at 5, briefly moved up to 5.5 and has been slowly falling to 4.5. I feel like the Colts should rock this game, but the lines are red flagging me otherwise. Lets jump into the numbers. Other than Carl Davis, there are no real injuries to note. In terms of sacks, Brissett has been sacked only 7 times this year, while Flacco has been sacked a whopping 23 times! Even with the recent loss to the Chiefs, the Bronco's D is pretty stout, giving up only the 5th best passer rating and they are 3rd in pass ypg and 3rd in ypa giving up less than 200 pass ypg. The Indy D ranks 19th in rush yards allowed per game, 26th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA metric and 28th and 30th in tackling and run defense respectively according to Pro Football Focus. But, the Bronco's offense sucks ranking 29th in ppg and 25th in ypg. Likely to give them less of an offensive threat is the trade of Emanuel Sanders to the 49ers. If I am going props in this game it would have to be Lindsey(Indy rush D is not that good) or Sutton (he is already the number 1, and the number 2 was traded away this week) Every time I review this game, the logic tells me that Indy should win and keep the train rolling. But something inside keeps screaming take Denver. Probably nothing, but Im gonna note it :P NY Jets @ Jacksonville (-6/-6.5/-7): A lot of lines available for this one, which is funny to me...as you'll see, I and my algo both favor the Jets. The Jets are coming off a sha-lacking vs. the Patriots where they were completely shut down. Jacksonville is coming off a 10 point win, but the game was much closer than the score shows with Jacksonville trailing into the 4th where they scored 18 points. Darnold had an issue with a toe, but it looks as if he as go. Other than that, there are 3 linebackers out for Jacksonville, and 1 possibly for NY. The Jets get to see the return of TE Herndon. As we all know, the Jax offense starts with their run game which is pretty good, gaining 5.1 ypc (3rd), and 140 ypg (5th). But, the strength of the Jets defense is their run D. They held pats to 2.2 ypc, and overall they only give up 3.3 ypc (2nd) and 92 ypg (11th) The Jets offense hasn't done much, but they have only started Darnold in 2 games (not including the Pats game because their D seems to be an outlier) and he is 1-1 and could quite easily be 2-0 in those games (losing the first one to the Bills comeback in week 1) It will be facing a Jax D that is pretty good. Their pass rush has a 30% pressure rate (6th), 21 sacks (4th), and a 9.2% knockdown rate (3rd). The algo has Jax @ -9/10 here. But does anyone really feel that confident laying a TD with Jax right now? Based upon the number match ups, this looks like it is going to be a grind of a game with both teams struggling for points. In those predicted under type games, I almost always favor the large amount of points. This is a game that deserves some underdog action. Philadelphia @ Buffalo (-2): The Eagles are coming off a big divisional loss to the Cowboys on Prime Time, while Buffalo is coming off a win, but a win they had to fight back to get. They were expected to easily handle the Dolphins last week but were taken by surprise as Miami took an early lead. They fought back to take the lead and held on by returning an onside kick for a TD. As usual, lets start with the injury report For the Eagles, everyone here is OUT:
Nigel Bradham (ankle, illness)
WR DeSean Jackson (abdomen)
OL Tim Jernigan (foot)
OL Jason Peters (knee)
RB Darren Sproles (quad)
CB Avonte Maddox (concussion)
The Bills have a list of questionables, but everyone seems to be a go. Lets start with Philly. This is their fourth road game in five weeks and they have allowed an average of 31.5 ppg in all 4 road games. Their defense has given up 24 or more points in 6 of 7 games this year and the only game they didn't give up at least 24...was vs. the Jets with Luke Falk at QB. In all 4 of their losses they have had a turnover. Clean games have not been easy for them. They will be facing a Buffalo D that is top in the league. They only give up 15 ppg (3rd) under 300 ypg (3rd) and their pass d is top 5 in ypg, passer rating, completion % and ypa. Combine that with the NFL's seventh-ranked rushing attack (135.8 ypg) with Frank Gore gaining 4.5 ypc. However, Philly is known to stack the box and stop the run. They were gashed last week, but overall only give up 90 ypg on the ground so far. With Philly likely to stack the box and force Buffalo to throw, I will be looking at Brown and Beasly for props, going against a Philly secondary that is laughable. My only concern in this game is my algo has BUF -8.5 and the Vegas spread is WAYYY off from that. This may have me avoiding a side in singles when i would normally feel Buffalo here. Cincinatti @ LA Rams (-11.5/-12/-12.5): Curious that the spreads are all over the place. However, 11-13 are really dead numbers so not much info to be gained from the multiple spreads. Cincinati looks worse than MIA. They looked decent for 3 quarters last week, but just couldn't hold it together. The Rams took the opportunity to play the Atlanta D and easily hopped back on the win train. This game will be taking place in London. The Bengals arrived on Friday and the Rams spent the week in ATL after last weeks game, and flew to London on Thursday night. No real injuries that need to be talked about. There are a few players out for both sides but nothing should effect the game much. So the Rams D had 5 sacks last week and is 4th in the league in QB pressure. Cincy has already been sacked 24 times this year. The add on of Jaylen Ramsey saw immediate impact as he had 4 tackles and a forced fumble in his first game with the Rams. The Cincy D has allowed an average 102 QBR and 8.4 ypa. While the Rams offense scores 27 ppg (7th) and gains 372 ypg (12th). Another interesting stat: Cincinnati's minus-9 turnover differential is the third-worst in the NFL. The algo only has LA as -9.5/-10.5 so i will probably avoid spreads in this game. For an interesting prop look, check out Darrel Henderson. The RB2 is out and in a gamescript where the Rams are leading by more than a score, they might look to rest Gurley for more difficult situations. This may lead to increased looks for Henderson. Arizona @ New Orleans (-12/-12.5): Whoa! Big movement and big news. This line opened at 7.5 and has now moved all the way up to 12.5 in most books. This is in connection with the announcement that Brees will be returning this Sunday to lead his team into the bye week. 1st question... why? Bridgewater is 5-0 in his absence. They are facing what should be one of their easier opponents, and they head into a bye next week. Maybe they want Brees to see some game time speed, given it should be one of their easier games. This way he doesn't come out cold in two weeks... I dont know. Either way, it seems like a curious change to make. The Saints have Smith, Cook and Robinson out. While the Cardinals Allen and Foster with a whole list of questionable. The Saints D is amazing so far. Currently they haven't allowed more than 260 total yards in 4 straight games and they are 34% on 3rd down, and have 20 sacks (5th). In the first four games, Arizona allowed 20 sacks (all losses or tie) but in the last 3 (all wins) Murray has only been sacked a total of 3 times. My Algo had this only as NO -4.5. Now that Brees is in and the line has moved so much, this game may be an avoid game. In props, I may look to Murray's rush yards. He should be pressured a ton in this game, and when he is pressured he likes to move. Afternoon Games Oakland @ Houston (-6.5): Oakland is on their 5th straight road game and coming off a loss at GB. They actually had a chance in that game. Carr fumbled in the end zone and it caused a 14 point swing that took away any momentum Oakland had. The OAK D has given up 21 points in 5 straight games and the pass rush has only a 14 % pressure rate (32nd), a 19 % blitz rate (4th lowest) and 10 sacks (28th). If they dont get to the QB, it might be all Houston as Watson is 7-0 in games when he doesn't get sacked and he is sporting 8.3 ypa through the air this year. Along side him is a pretty solid run game lead by Carlos Hyde gaining an average 66 ypg, 4.2 ypc. With the Texans rush offense as a whole gaining 4.9 ypc (5th) and 134 ypg (8th). The Algo has this as Hou -9.5 so this actually makes me suspicious of the spread. Any bets in this game will come down to the start/sit of Josh Jacobs. Without the threat of him in the backfield, the Texans D will be able to drop extra men into coverage, but if he plays, I would look for a closer game that leans towards a shootout. Carolina @ San Francisco (-4.5/-5/-5.5): These next three are my most anticipated games of the slate. This game features the undefeated 49ers hosting the streaking Panthers. For Carolina, no notable injuries for this week. For the 49ers its the same as before. (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), and (OT) Joe Staley are all still out. So to start with we see Garoppolo is 5-0 with eight touchdowns and three interceptions in five home starts with San Francisco. They just added Emanuel Sanders to the roster which should ultimately boost their already good 7.9 ypa on offense. Garoppolo will be going against the Panthers’ secondary that was outstanding early in the season but has surrendered more than 350 yards in consecutive games. The SF rush D that has only allowed 4.1ypc (12th) and 90 ypg (7th) will have its hands full this week going up against Christian McCaffrey who has 923 yards rushing so far. An interesting stat that has me leaning Carolina in this one: CAR blitzes the fewest of any team in the league...YET, they lead the NFL in sacks. I will be shopping my line here and lean with the dog. Cleveland @ New England (-10/-10.5/-11): This is going to be a fun match up to watch. But it doesn't appear it will be a good game. There are no real injuries to note and you could make a case for CLE by saying they are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win vs. a NE team that is coming off a short week. But with my model, that doesn't appear to be the case. The Cleveland offense averages 231 ypg (16th) and 7.5 ypa (15th) but has 15 dropped passes (3rd )and 11 ints (32nd). They have 1 in every game... Also, Baker has turned the ball over 12 times this year (tied for the most in the NFL) going against a NE D that has 18 INTs right now. This looks like a game where the Patriots will utilize their mutli-headed run game as Cleveland has been gashed for 154.0 yard per game on the ground. The one shining light for the browns D is they have 19 sacks. However, 9 of those sacks have come from Myles Garret. Also, here is a video I came across where it is detailed how to disrupt the play of Baker Mayfield. I feel like if I can find this, so can the Patriots. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4qlJE4DZsc Sunday Night Football Green Bay @ Kansas City(+4.5/+5): This one has the biggest line movement of the slate. Originally, it opened KC -4, since the Mahomes injury, it has moved to what it is now. The only other notable injury is DeVante Adams will still be out for GB. Starting for KC should be Matt Moore, who replaced PM during the Denver game. He did fairly well, coming in and going 10-19 117 yds, 1TD and a 90 QBR. KC last played on Thursday, so they had a few extra days to prepare for this one. I feel like with Matt Moore starting at QB, a lot of KC offensive stats are devalued. KC defense has 20 sacks (5th) and will be facing and offensive line in GB that has only give up 12 sacks. The packers rank 11th in offense but it has mostly been due to the passing game. They have failed to get more than 80 yards rushing in 4 of 7. They may look to turn that around this week against a poor KC run defense that gives up 5 ypc (30th) and 150 ypg (29th). I dont expect Matt Moore to have too difficult of a time. He still has a lot of star power on the offensive side of the ball and they will be facing a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th in total defense and has given up 420 or more total yards three times. However, the team is ninth in scoring defense with 13 takeaways. My algo had GB -2.5, before the PM adjustments. I dont think Moore deserves the 8-9 points Vegas is adjusting for, but even field goad pushes GB to -5.5. Overall for props the model is predicting both of GBs running backs to have increased opportunities on the ground and in the air. Singles 46-53-2 (+3.03u)
NYG +6.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
NYG ml (1u to win 2.5u)
Golden Tate 75+ Rec Yards (2u to win 2.3u)
Saquon 75+ Rush Yards (1u to win 1u)
Saquon 105.5+ Rush and Rec Yards (0u to win 3u)
Corey Davis 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
A.J. Brown 2.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.3u)
Phillip Lindsey 53.5 Rush Yards Over (0u to win 1u)
Phillip Lindsey to Score TD (0u to win 1.2u)
Chargers ml (1u to win 1.63u)
Chargers +3.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
Eckler 5.5 Rec Over (0u to win 1.2u)
Eckler 45.5 Rec Yards Over (0u to win 2u)
Hooper 58.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
NYJ +7 (2.2u to win 2u)
NYJ ml (1u to win 2.7u)
Gardener Minshew 239.5 Pass yards Under (0u to win 1u)
New England -10.05 (1.1u to win 1u)
Kenny stills 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 2u)
Aaron Jones 64.5 Rush Yards Over(0u to win 1u)
Aaron Jones 13.5 Rush Attempts (0u to win 2u)
Jamal Williams 21.5 Rec Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
Parlays: 1-3 (+43.42u)
Titans ml, Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml (1u to win 1.86u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Bills ml (1u to win 2u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, Den +5.5 (1u to win 2.2u)
Jets +7, LAC +3.5, NYG +3.5, CAR +4.5, NE -8.5 (2.5u to win 72.2u)This has "parlay insurance" A promo on DK wherein if 4 out of 5 legs hit, I get a refund on my bet.
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5 (0u to win 117.7u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-6 (-5.19u)
Ten ml, NYG ml, DEN ml, LAC ml, NYJ +7, Buf ml, NO ml, Sea ml, Car +4.5, NE ml, GB ml, Mia ml (0u to win 5438.7u)
Rams ml, Saints ml, Pats ml, GB ml, Jets +7, NYG +6, LAC +3.5, SEA ml, Buf ml, Ten ml, Car +5.5 (0u to win 231.1u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-2 (-1u)
I put this in at the Ocean Casino, I will post in the comments if by some miracle all the 1 and 4 pm games hit. (0.5u to win 10000u)
Teasers: 5-11 (-11.18u)
I am putting in a teaser card at the Ocean when I head over there before the games today. I will post picks in the comments after I see the lines and place the bet.
Futures
NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u)This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
Notes for bets: So this week I drove to PA (I live in South Jersey) and I made new accounts on some websites in PA. Because of this I now have 45u in Free Bets that need to be used in the next 30 days. I will probably sprinkle them into my singles and take a 10u shot here or there on a parlay. Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!!
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CreateYoureReality NFL Analysis and Picks Week 7 (Sunday Games)
https://preview.redd.it/u77j2la4upt31.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0698ea482320262df53c90032211c8f324ddc25c Hi All! Big slate with some really nice match ups. First lets recap the TNF game. Singles: 0-4 (-6.13u) Parlay: none BBDLS: none Teasers: none Notes: Well, this was a rough one to watch. On the bright side, I learned a lot! The Broncos almost had that first quarter. They came out strong, but I think they were a little deflated after missing the two point conversion. Conversely Maholmes came out much hotter than expected. It sucked seeing PM go down like that so early in the game but, it gave our wagers life. The QB for the other side however, Flacco, is done. (IMO) He may have another good game here and there, but he looks SHOOK. He looks so scared to stand in the pocket and take a hit. I think any team that can pressure him will have easy wins. Tyreek Alllmost came through for us in the end having a bomb for a TD, but not quite reaching the yards needed. Sucks we lost our picks, but good to learn about Flacco. Early Games (1pm) Arizona @ NY Giants (-3/-4): A fantastic match up to start the day with! Two first round QB picks go head to head. The number one pick, Kyler Murray, and company are coming in with a 2 game win streak while the number 6 pick, Daniel Jones, and the Giants are returning from a few extra days of rest. This extra rest comes at the perfect time as the Giants are getting back offensive juggernaut, Saquan Barkley. They also see the return of a favorable target in TE Evan Ingram. Other than Sterling Shepherd not returning for the Giants, they seem to be near full strength. The Cardinals, not so much. While they do see the return of Patrick Peterson (6 game suspension), they are going to be a little short on offense. So far out is (DL) Zach Allen (neck), (RB) D.Jd. Foster (hamstring) and (OL) Brett Toth (illness). Game time decisions are (WR) Christian Kirk and (RB) David Johnson who is probable to play (but with an ankle injury). If for some reason he is out, Arizona will be down to only 1 RB, Chase Edmunds. They could use both of those RBs to help pull linebackers in because the Giants are horrible against the pass. So far they have let opposing QBs average a 103 Passer rating and put up 285 yards p/g passing They rank 27th in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded. (however, I take these stats with a grain of salt. First two games Giants were flat because Eli, after that Saquan was out, costing the Giants TOP and putting their defense on the field longer) Luckily for NY, the Arizona defense is worse. The are 29th in points allowed, 30th in yards conceded and are the only team in the league not to have an INT. Combine the return of Evan Ingram with a Cardinals defense that has given up a league-high 599 yards and seven touchdowns to tight ends... I think this is also a good game to look at props:
Evan Ingram: Obviously I am looking here. He is coming off two weeks rest. He is the primary receiver for Jones and he is facing the Cardinals.
Scary Larry: Not only does he normally do well playing in MetLife stadium, but he is the most consistent, reliable option for Murray. Fitz has caught at least 5 balls in EVERY game this year. His total is 5.5 right now and is +
Markus Golden: He has been killing it this year. Recording at least 0.5 sacks in 5 games straight and Kyler Murray is 5th on the most sacked list right now with 21 times.
At the beginning of the weak, I was going to be hard on the over too. Both crappy D, both two young QBs looking to be the better choice. But, with the addition of Saquan back in the lineup, I am cautious of the Giants running the ball against the Arizona D that is giving up 4.6 ypc, allowing them to manage the clock better. The algo has the Giants at -5 and I am definitely in concurrence on this game. I also might sprinkle a little on the Giants to win the NFC East. It's early, but looking at their schedule...now would be the time to take them if you like them! Houston @ Indianapolis(PK/-1): Here we have one of the more anticipated match ups of the day. A divisional battle for the current 1st place in the division. Both are coming off an upset victory over the Chiefs in Arrowhead. But, the Colts are coming off a bye week and extra rest. First we start with injuries. The Colts utilized their bye week and are nearing full strength. (LB) Darius Leonard has been out for 3 games, but looks to return. The Texans have sustained some key injuries. They lost Bradley Roby (corner) and offensive tackle Tytus Howard. DeAndre Hopkins was limited in practice (ribs) but appears to be a go for Sunday. The Texans offense is pretty good. They are 1st in the league on 3rd down completion and averaging 4.9 ypc on the ground. The Colts D is pretty weak vs. the run giving up 5.1ypc (28th). Their pass D is pretty horrible too, giving out ratings of: QBR (29th) completion % (26th) and 3rd down stopping (26th). However, it is the same story on the other side of the ball as the Colts run offense averages 142 ypg (4th) and 4.5 ypc (13th). They are going against a Texans run D that gives up 4.4 ypc (18th). The Colts offense is (9th) on 3rd down at 46% and Houston is bottom 10 in the league at 3rd down stoppage. There are these interesting stats: Jacoby Brisset has only been sacked 6 times this year and colts are currently the least penalized team in the league. Also, Brisset is somehow 3-0 vs Houston? (Not sure this stat means much). My algo has this one as a 21-21 PK. That doesn't include a HFA adjustment. This easily has me leaning the home team. Personally, I feel like the extra rest, the HFA, and the offensive line/run game of the Colts are the factors that tip the scale. (I do like the Colts in this game, but I still favor Houston to win the division) Something to keep in mind for this game. Yea, Watson has put up over 80 points the last two weeks...But how did he look against two of the three formidable defenses he faced? 13 points against JAX and 10 points against the Panthers. Both home games. He did score 28 against the Saints D....but that was week 1, when everyone is just getting in the flow. I expect the Colts to to a much better job at keeping the Texans below 20 points. If I was looking props in this game, it would be Marlon Mack for IND. Miami @ Buffalo(-16.5/-17): Probably one of the lesser watched games of the slate. Buffalo is coming off a nice rest. Miami is coming off a missed Tua-point conversion that was probably their best shot at a win this year. They also benched Rosen in the middle of last game for Fitzpatrick. He came in and did OK vs the Redskins throwing 12-18 for 132 yards, 1 TD and almost a 107 QBR. However, that was vs. a Redskins D. This is vs. a Bills D that is top 5 in pretty much every category. They also have a takeaway in 4 out of 5 games this season. Which sucks for Fitz-running out of- Magic who through 4 INTs in BOTH game 1 and game 2 for Miami. Bills rush offense averages 139 ypg (6th) and 4.8 ypc (10th) and they will be facing a Miami defense that has 4.7 ypc allowed (23rd). Here you would think the focus will be on Frank Gore one of his former teams, but personally I think the focus is going to shift to the return of Rookie (RB) Devin Singletary. He has missed the Bills last 3 games with a hamstring injury, but looks ready to go. The Bills should look to use him to balance the load on the aging Gore. Fitz is a favorite to throw a TD and and INT. But barring some miracle defensive showing from the Dolphins, i see this one as an easy win for Buffalo. Jacksonville @ Cincinatti(+4/+4.5): Here we see if the Stash can get back on track, vs the win less Bengals. The Bengals are 0-6, but they have lost 4 of those 6 by less than a TD. Jacksonville was disappointing at home last week but I think more credit has to be given to the Saints D rather than taken away from Jacksonville. First lets dive into the injuries. The Bengals have a ton: OUT: (OT) Cordy Glenn (suspended); (WR) A.J. Green (ankle); (OT) Andre Smith (ankle); (CB) William Jackson III (shoulder); (CB) Dre Kirkpatrick (knee); (DE) Carl Lawson (hamstring); (G )John Miller (groin). Doubtful: (DE) Carlos Dunlap (knee). The Jags injuries are all on the offensive side of the ball: Out: (WR) Marqise Lee (ankle); (TE) Geoff Swaim (concussion/ankle). Questionable: (WR) Dede Westbrook (shoulder). However, the Jags are very Four-tu-nette to have Leonard on their team. He has 584 yards with 5.1 ypc and is facing a Cincy run D that gives up 5.3 ypc. (good for last in the NFL) Looking defensively, the Jags 19 sacks (4th) this year and Dalton has been sacked 22 times this year (28th). The Mustache has has 9 TDs to 2 picks and a 97.5 passer rating (13th). I look for him to get back on track this week against a Bengals pass D that has let opposing QBs have a 105 passer rating (27th) and 69% completion percentage (24th). If I look at props this game, I will probably be looking the way of DJ Chark. He has been killing it since the insertion of Minshew and with the string of offensive weapons out for Jacksonville, I look for Chark to have increased opportunities. \**Another props look might be Joe Mixon. He has averaged over 100 yards in his last 10 home games. (Although a main counter to this stat is the most likely game script has Cincy playing from behind meaning less rushing opportunities) His total is currently only at 67.5.* San Francisco @ Washington (+9.5/+10): Another game this will likely be one of the least watched. The undefeated 49ers travel to D.C. to take on the Redskins who are coming off their first and likely only victory this season. This game sees the 49ers coach return to the place that last fired him. First we look at the injuries. For the Redskins, Running back Chris Thompson is OUT with a toe injury. Tight end Vernon Davis is OUT with a concussion. Offensive lineman Wes Martin is OUT with a chest injury. Deshazor Everett is OUT with an ankle injury. Linebacker Josh Harvey-Clemson is OUT with a hamstring injury and Cornerback Josh Norman is QUESTIONABLE with thigh/hand injuries. For the 49ers, OUT is (DT) DJ Jones (hamstring), (CB) Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), (FB) Kyle Juszczyk (knee), (OT) Mike McGlinchey (knee), (OT) Joe Staley (fibula), and (WR) Deebo Samuel (groin). With (RB) Raheem Mostert (knee) listed as questionable. The 49er offense is pretty good with their rush offense leading the way. Rushing for 180 ypg and doing so at 4.6 ypc. The Redskins rush D gives up 134 ypg at 4.6ypc. Sadly the Redskins pass D isn't much either, allowing opposing QBs an average 71% completion percentage and a 101 passer rating. My algo has this as SF -14. (However, this is before injuries and... the allllll important trip from West coast to East coast for a 1pm game... adjustments have been made) The algo has this as a 31-17 game but I can easily see SF putting up more...OR less. For that reason this will probably be a no play for me. (Although, as my consistent readers know, I love betting the first quarter against West coast teams traveling east for a 1pm game. This may get a look, especially if I can find a +3 or better for WAS.) Oakland @ Green Bay(-4.5/-5/-5.5): One of the bigger and more curious line movements of the week. Opened at -7, Green Bay WON vs the Lions, and the line has moved allllll the way do to settle at -4.5 at most available books. Very Very curious to me. Not only is then line moving against Green Bay (getting almost half the tickets written on them), but GB WON their last game!!! This has to be a red flag for heavy sharp action on the Raiders point spread. Which, when we dive in, has some serious merit. First of all, the Raiders are coming off a bye, having played their last game two weeks ago in London and put an upset on the Bears. Secondly, the Oakland offense is doing pretty well right now. Derrick Carr is leading the league in completion percentage at 73.3%. To compliment that, the Raiders rush attack is running at an average of 4.9 ypc and gaining and average 134 ypg. The GB rush D has given up 120 ypg in 4 out of 6 games this year and is averaging giving up 124 ypg rushing on the season. Unfortunately for the Raiders, their Pass D isn't the best. They did pretty well in their last game, but it was against a Chase Daniel lead Bears offense. Overall they give up an average 104 QBR (26th) to opposing QBs and 264 ypg (22nd). Let's take a look at the injury report. For the Packers, receiver Davante Adams (toe) and safety Darnell Savage (ankle) are both out. Receiver Geronimo Allison (concussion) and tight end Robert Tonyan (hip) are doubtful and defensive lineman Kenny Clark (calf/back), receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/back) and cornerback Tony Brown (hamstring) are all questionable. On the bright side for the Pack, cornerback Kevin King, tight end Jimmy Graham and cornerback Tramon Williams are all expected to play. For the Raiders, Tyrell Williams and Arden Key are OUT. Right tackle Trent Brown is doubtful, while receivereturner Dwayne Harris and guard Gabe Jackson are both questionable. The Algo has GB as -5.5 in this one, but the the heavy line movement that is counter to GB having a win on Monday night has me leaning OAK or stay away. Minnesota @ Detroit(+2.5): Minnesota coming off back to back wins where Cousins took care of both his crying receivers. Detroit is coming off a heartbreaking loss that in the opinion of many could be chalked up to the Refs. However when we look closer we see that the Lions were 3 of 13 on 3rd down and kicked 5 field goals (two inside the ten yard line). They also had a stupid 12 men on the field penalty in a key spot. Let's take a look at the injury reports. For the Lions, no new injuries appeared to take anyone out of the game. Defensive tackle Da’Shawn Hand, safety Quandre Diggs, offensive tackle Rick Wagner, fullback Nick Bawden, and cornerback Darius Slay are all questionable, but all will most likely play. For the Vikings, only line backer Ben Gedeon is out, while LB Kentrell Brothers remains questionable. This feels like it has the makings of a low scoring game where Stafford has the ball in his hands to win it or lose it in the 4th. Will he redeem the divisional loss to Rodgers on MNF in the closing minutes? Or will the Lions fade away in the division race? The Minn D speaks for itself, top 10 in EVERY Defensive category. The Minn run game is also elite averaging 5.1 ypc (3rd) and it will be facing a Detroit run D that gives up 5.1 ypc(28th). My model had this opening at Detroit -1.5 but after the loss the GB, I can see why the line is moving. I can't imagine it getting up to +3 but if it does, I will be all over the Lions. I would have to say my strongest lean here is towards the Under. Barring a few defensive scores, I think this game is ground and pound with a side of slow clock management and has a good shot at staying under the total. I would be surprised if either team scores over 21 here. The Vikings (even with the 28-10 win over the NYG) are only averaging 17 ppg on the road. I will be looking for a closer game and leaning under the total. L.A. Rams @ Atlanta (+3): The last 1pm game on the slate and it's a tough one to decipher. The Rams started off great going 3-0 but have since dropped 3 straight. (Two against division opponents) The Falcon's, while it looks like a shit show sitting at 1-5, actually still have a outside shot at winning their division. This is because they haven't played ANY of their divisional games yet. It would be sooooo sweet to see them somehow go 6-0 in the division and lose every other game but still win the division. Which...if their defense can somehow get good overnight.. could actually be a possibility with the way Matt Ryan is playing. Last week he went 30-36 350+ yards 4 TDs and a 145 QBR. He has had a 300+ yard passing game EVERY GAME this season. And only thrown less than 2 TDs one time. Unfortunately for him, he faces the Rams D that only gives up 241 ypg (14th) The placed Talib on IR, and traded away Marcus Peters, but replaced him with a fancy new toy in Jaylen Ramsey. On the other side of the ball we have the Rams offense. Which it seems like something is a little GeOFF. Geoff has 7 TDs and 7 picks with a QBR of 80...On the bright side for Geoff, he seems to be better when he isn't pressured (as are all QBs) and the Falcons only have 5 sacks on the year. He will be facing a Falcons third down defense that is the worst in the league allowing almost half of the 3rd down plays to convert against them. This should be a defense for Geoff to get right against as they allow an average QBR of 120 while allowing opposing QBs to throw for 8.3 ypa. All signs point to an LA bounce back. No real injuries to note. Gurley is back for the Rams. The Falcon's are without star defensive player Desmond Trufant but honestly, he hasn't looked good enough this year for me to warrant that a big drop. My algo has this as LA -1. There is a good chance come game time I am leaning Falcons with the points. \**Interesting note, this game also falls into my favorite spot, West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm start**** Afternoon Games (4pm) L.A. Chargers @ Tennessee (-2.5): For our first afternoon game of the slate we have two crappy teams, likely to miss the playoffs. On the one hand we have the Chargers who have lost 2 straight as a favorite. On the other side of the ball we have the Titans that have also lost 2 straight. First lets look at injuries. Los Angeles will be without their two starting defensive tackles, Justin Jones and Brandon Mebane. Melvin Ingram is doubtful. The Titans have some questionable ( http://www.espn.com/nfl/injuries/_/team/ten ) but the most note worthy injury is the possible absence of Delanie Walker. Starting with the Chargers, they have been horrible in the turnover department, giving up 3 in each of their recent losses and a whopping 11 on the season so far. One bright spot for the Chargers is the opportunity at pass rush. They currently only have 12 sacks on the season but in this game they face a Titans team that has allowed 29 sacks! (the most in the NFL) It would be nice if the Chargers could get their run game back on track, having 4 straight games under 100 yards rushing and averaging only 3.8 ypc. Rivers is going to have his hands full, facing a Titans D that is legit. They only give up an average of 217 ypg passing (6th) and limit opposing QBs to a 86.4 QBR (11th). While this is probably going to be a crappy game, my algo has the Chargers coming out as -3.5 favorite, predicting a low scoring affair around the 18-13 range. Should be interesting to see which team gives themselves some hope! New Orleans @ Chicago(-4/-4.5): New Orleans rolls into Chicago riding a hot 4 game win streak on the back of an even hotter defense. Although this week the Saints will be without Jared Cook, Alvin Kamar, and Tre'quan Smith. Chicago tries to wake up as they see the return of QB Mitch Trubitsky and WR Taylor Gabriel after a bye week and some rest. Currently the Bears offense needs some work. They have only scored an average of 17.4 ppg (27th), gain 266 ypg (30th), pass for 185 ypg (30th) and convert on only 1 out of 3 third downs. That offense is going up a Saints D that has been on fire. They haven't allowed more than 260 yards in their last 3 games and their pass rush has a 33% pressure rate (3rd) and 18 sacks (6th). The Saints are going up against a rested Bears D that is only giving up 14 ppg (3rd) and has 10 turnovers (9th) in 5 games. Currently this is an underdog or stay away for me. My Algo has Chicago as 4 point favorites in a 17-13 style game AND the RLM (3 out of 5 tickets are on NO and the points but the line has moved from a -3 open to -4/-4.5) indicates that sharp money is on Chicago... But I cant help thinking the #Saints are #Blessed. Given that a positive case can be made for both sides, it is probably best to avoid this game. However, I may be looking at the Under given both teams defensive track records. Baltimore @ Seattle (-2/-3): Ooooo boy, I am excited to see this one. Not that there are many playoff implications, as this is a non conference match up, but I am excited to see both of these teams (that are usually known for defense) compete with their explosive QBs. First off, very curious that the lines I have are -2 and -3 and not -2.5 and -3. The DK/SH books must have had a recent large wager on Baltimore. Russel Wilson is currently on fire and seriously stating his claim to the MVP trophy this year. He has 14 TDs and 0 INTs with a QBR of 125. He averages 9 yards per attempt (2nd) and has a completion percentage of 72.5!!! However for this game he will be without one of his favorite targets this year, Will Dissly. On the other side of the ball we have the have the Seattle D. So far, the rush D is giving up 4.7 ypc (27th) which doesn't bode well vs. the combo of Mark Ingram and the designed run plays for Jackson. \**An interesting note someone tweeted:* Russell Wilson's three career pick-sixes have gone to a King, a Prince, and a Captain, and he plays an Earl this Sunday. Safety Earl Thomas returns to Seattle this Sunday as a part of the Raven's team. He left Seattle after an injury during a contract hold out in 2018.\*** If I had to take a side, I feel like it would be the dog and the points. 4 of 5 of Seattle's wins this year have been by 4 points or less and 4 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a TD or less. This does have potential for a teaser. (Baltimore and the over) Night Game (8 pm) Philadelphia @ Dallas (-2.5/-3): For the last game of the day we have a battle for the NFC east. The coach for the Eagles was heard on a radio show saying "we're gonna win this game". The Eagles come into this game after getting smoked by the Vikings. Dallas is in a similar sinking ship losing their last 3. But, last year they started in the same ship going 3-5 only to finish 10-6. To plug the holes, it's going to have to start with turnovers. They had 2 in their first 3 games, but have given up 6 in their 3 losses. The Eagles offense looks decent. With Wentz throwing for 12 TDs - 3 INTs, averaging 243 ypg with a 94 QBR. The Eagles rushing attack is getting 4 ypc (19th) and 111 ypg (15th). The Eagles D on the other hand is medicare - bad. The Eagles Do have 14 sacks...but 10 of them came in one game (Jets). The Eagles Pass D gives up 280 ypg (29th) and has given up 13 pass TDs (28th). The Eagles like to stack the box which is bad news for Zeke, but that is good news for all of Dallas WRs. Because of the heavy run stuffing action that Philly produces, they have created a defense that is extremely susceptible to big plays in the air. "No team has allowed more 30-yard passing touchdowns or more 100-yard receivers than the Eagles" The injury reports for both teams: Dallas
This game looks like it could go either way. I lean on Prescott's running ability to help keep some drives alive but personally I think the best look in this game is Dallas Team Total points. Currently it sits at 24/24.5 depending on the book. The Eagles have given up at least 24 points to EVERY QB this year Except Luke Faulk and the Jets. Singles 37-41 (+4.33u)
Evan Ingram 5.5 Rec Over (0.68u to win 0.5u)
Scary Larry 5.5 Rec Over (2u to win 2.4u)d
Markus Golden 0.5 Sacks Over (3.4u to win 2u)
Giants 1H (1.6u to win 1u)
Giants ml (5.1u to win 3u)
Colts 1H ml (1.2u to win 1u)
Colts ml (1.15u to win 1u)
Marlon Mack 16.5 Rush Attempts Over (3.33u to win 3u)
Marlon Mack to score 1st TD and Colts Win (0.5u to win 6.5u)
Devin Singletary 36.5 Rush Yards Over (2.67u to win 2u)
Joe Mixon 67.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
Leonard Fournette 89.5 Yds Rush Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
DJ Chark 4.5 Rec Over (0.5u to win 0.54u)
Oak +5.5 (1.05u to win 1u)
Min/Det Total 43 Under (1.1u to win 1u)
Atl 1Q ml (1u to win 1.23u)
Matt Ryan Passing Yards 310.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
LAC +3 (1.14u to win 1u)
Joey Bosa 0.5 Sacks Over (2.5u to win 2u)
Bal/Sea Both teams to score 1TD and 1FG in each half (1u to win 9u)
Dal Team Total 24.5 Over (2.27u to win 2u)
Parlays: 1-1 (+45.42u)
NYG ml, Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5, SF ml, Buf 1H ml, NE ml (0u to win 20.6u)Free Bet on Points Bet
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-3 (-2.23u)
Ind -1, NYG ml, 49ers -9.5, Jax ml, NE ml, Dal ml, Oak ml, Buf -17, La +2.5 (1u to win 189.5)
Ind +4.5, Buf -8.5, Oak +7.5, NYG ml, Jax ml , 49ers ml, LAC +3.5, Dal ml, NE ml, Bal +4.5 (0.96u to win 141.6u)
Marcus Golden Sacs Over, Marlon Mack Rush Attempts Over, Devin singletary rush yards over, Matt Ryan Passing Yards over, 49ers ml, NE ml, Oak ml, LAC ml, Bengals +4.5 (1u to win 190.6u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-1 (-0.5u)
I put in a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (0.5u to win 10000u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is live going after the early game, I will post a picture.
Teasers: 3-8 (-9.98u)
Colts +5.5 and Under 53.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Oak +11 and Over 40 (1.1u to win 1u)
LAC +7.5 and Under 48.5(1.1u to win 1u)
Sea +5.5 and Over 42.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
I put in a 15 teamer on a card for the Ocean Casino. It is (1u to win 200u). Im not going to type them all out as it probably won't hit, but if it is life after the early games, I will post a picture.
Futures
NE, GB, CLE, NYG all to win their Division (0u to win 257.8u)This is a Free bet (last one for DK, it was close to expiring) I like CLE's schedule after the pats game. NYG..I mean cmon. Everyones getting healthy, and the rest of the division hasn't been dominant enough to count them out. Should be a fun sweat!
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