NFL Futures: Pro Football Future & Super Bowl Betting Odds

This is just mock draft 1 and we're a long way from the actual draft so I'm open to criticism, position suggestions, player evaluation disagreements, etc. Let me know what you think (third round explanations deleted due to word count restraints).

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson. Lawrence is in the discussion for best QB prospect of all time and will be the pick.
   
2. New York Jets - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State. I'm working under the assumption that Deshaun Watson will not be traded. After a deep dive into analytics and spending way too much time breaking down game tape, I personally would go with Fields over Wilson. But, they have virtually the same grade and I would not be shocked by either player being picked.
   
3. Denver Broncos (from Miami via Houston) - QB Zach Wilson, BYU. With Zach Wilson still on the board at pick 3, John Elway, George Paton and the Broncos go all in to get their franchise QB. If your division rival is lining up Patrick Mahomes under center, you need to do better than Drew Lock to compete. The Broncos have a franchise left tackle to anchor their line, and a very talented young group of weapons. They've build a roster friendly to a franchise QB, so the timing is right to make this move for Denver. As the Rams have proven, you don't need first round picks to build a roster that competes for championships.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon. I 'm not sure this move will be popular with Falcons fans, but here goes. With the Broncos trading up and taking the last of the top QBs in this class off the board, the Falcons suddenly have a difficult decision to make. Do you take a raw, inexperienced QB like Trey Lance, or do you take best player available? Here I have the Falcons going best player available because Matt Ryan is still a top QB, and due to his contract situation he's going to be on the roster for at least two more years. That gives them a bigger window to add more talent to the roster before selecting Ryan's replacement. And it would probably be prudent for the Falcons to build a roster then get a QB, rather than get a QB and build the roster after, when the QB prospect in question is a project. Unfortunately, there are no pass rushing prospects who really fit here, although Dean Pees' defense should help to mask that deficiency some and there are good value prospects who should be available on day 2. A.J. Terrell had a promising rookie season, but beyond him they need both depth and talent at CB so one of the top CB prospects is an option here. However, for Arthur Smith's new offense getting a prospect like Sewell is too good of an option. With his contract being easy to move on from, I'm projecting the Falcons cut James Carpenter and select Sewell to move to guard to start his career. This gives them a lot of talent on the offensive line and a lot of flexibility in the future. Should Matthews begin to decline, they can move on and slide Sewell out to left. If McGary doesn't get better in his third year, Sewell could be a long term replacement there. And the main factor that led me to making this pick is that Arthur Smith didn't take the Atlanta job to rebuild. He's got a really good QB in Matt Ryan and Sewell at guard gives the Falcons the best chance at closing out the Ryan era on a high note.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern. Thanks to the Broncos trading up for Wilson, the Bengals are guaranteed at least one of the top offensive line prospects in the class being on the board, and although Sewell is gone at 4 Slater is still an excellent prize at 5. As tempting as it may be to reunite Burrow and Chase, the Bengals have to protect their franchise QB. Ideally, Jonah Williams is healthy, but after two years he's had a tough time staying on the field so a guy like Slater who can play any position on the line is perfect here.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - WR Devonta Smith, Alabama. While I do think it would be smart for the Eagles to draft a CB here, I think Nick Sirianni's odds of surviving in Philly will go way down if he can't fix Wentz. I also think Roseman knows his job is tied to the success of Wentz, given the contract he gave to Wentz. Because of that I've decided to go with a WR here. If I'm being honest, I'm not entirely sure that Smith is the best WR prospect in this class. It's really close between the top 3. However, I think the areas in which Smith excels make him the best fit for Sirianni's offense.
   
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU. While QB was expected to be a target, thanks to the acquisition of Jared Goff the Lions do not need to draft a QB here. In fact, I think it's pretty unlikely that the Lions pick a QB here. Jared Goff has had success in the NFL and he's helped lead his team to a Super Bowl, he may not be a top QB but he's a capable starter. Given the influx of draft capital, the Lions cap situation, and the fact that Goff's contract is virtually unmovable for the next two years they are likely going to use this window to build the roster back up. While I think a CB could be a good fit here, they did just draft Okudah last year who should be given a chance to grow in a new defense, especially since the transition from college to the NFL takes longer at that position. Micah Parsons is tempting here too, as linebacker is a need for the Lions. But given the cap situation and the fact that Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Danny Amendola are all set to be free agents, I've decided to give the Lions a WR. Not only does this give the Lions a cheap, young, and talented option at WR (allowing them to move on from some of those would-be free agents), he's also arguably the top prospect left on the board.
   
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama. There are a lot of options the Panthers could go with here. I debated between Micah Parsons and Surtain here because while I think the Panthers defense should improve next year, they're still missing consistent ILB play as well as a true #1 CB. Ultimately I chose Surtain over Parsons based on positional value given similar position on my board. I also chose Surtain over Farley because I think he's a better fit in Phil Snow's defense. He's physical and sticky in coverage, and I think he would be a great complement at cornerback to go with safety Chinn. I think OL could be considered here, but I'm not sure reaching for OL when there is better value at other positions of need makes sense. Trey Lance could be an option here, but I (perhaps incorrectly) think Fitterer and Rhule will pass on a QB if they can get a top defensive prospect. This would effectively buy another year for them to build up the roster if they choose to go with a QB in the first round of 2022.
   
9. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State. Thanks to a number of trades, real and mocked, the Dolphins have a lot of draft capital and they can use some of that to get weapons for Tua Tagovailoa. But here, they take the best player still on the board. Brian Flores loves to blitz, and Parsons is one of the best blitzing linebacker prospects in years. Jaylen Waddle would be a good pick here too, but the fit is too perfect for me to pass here.
   
10. Dallas Cowboys - CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech. The Cowboys offense will not be a problem with Prescott back in the lineup. The defense needs a lot of work though, so as tempting as Kyle Pitts may be the Cowboys will almost certainly go defense here. The Cowboys have some cornerbacks set to be free agents but they are not worth re-signing. Farley is the best cornerback on the board and is a great value here for Dallas. The Cowboys could look at a couple other positions on defense, but they won't find the value they'd be getting in Caleb Farley.
    
11. Chicago Bears (from New York Giants) - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State. With the 49ers pick looming, the Bears pull the trigger to move up and get their QB. The Bears have Nick Foles under contract for two more years but he can be cut after next season. Given that situation, the Bears can afford to sit Lance for at least a year and let him develop. He's got all of the tools to be a great QB, but due to the fact that he only played one year at the FCS level, he falls to 11.
    
12. San Francisco 49ers - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina. Injuries decimated a roster that is talented enough to compete for championships when healthy, so the 49ers can afford to focus on needs. Horn might be seen as a reach here by some, but the drop-off at cornerback is huge and the 49ers need to address the position in the offseason with so many impending free agents. Regardless, Horn is an excellent prospect and be a good pick for first time DC Ryans.
    
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC. Justin Herbert emerged as one of the most promising young QBs in the game despite poor offensive line play. The Chargers need to improve the line, so they can't justify reaching for a tackle because of positional value. They just need to take the best lineman on the board, and that's Vera-Tucker. There's some discussion as to whether he can make it as a tackle at the next level, but most have him projected as a guard. Wherever he plays, he should be an upgrade for the Chargers.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings - EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan. The Vikings would love to improve their interior offensive line, but there's better value on day 2, so the Vikings go with a pass rusher here. The Vikings had one of the best defenses in 2019, and a big part of that was the pass rush. Last year however, the pass rush was ineffective and the defense fell apart. Getting Danielle Hunter back and pairing him with Paye while rotating D.J. Wonnum and Jalyn Holmes in could restore the Vikings pass rush and help get them back to the postseason.
    
15. New England Patriots - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame. Although he played in a different scheme at Notre Dame than Bill Belichick uses, Owusu-Koramoah is one of the most versatile defenders in the class. He has shown the ability to rush the passer, drop back in coverage, and his elite sideline to sideline speed for the position that makes him an ideal linebacker against modern offenses. The Patriots need to get younger and faster on defense. As much as I want to add a weapon like Waddle or Pitts to the Patriots, I'm just not convinced that Belichick will actually do that in the first round.
    
16. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami (FL). With Haason Reddick and Markus Golden both set to hit free agency, and Chandler Jones coming off of an injury, heading into his age 31 season, and on the final year of his contract, the Cardinals pass rush is inevitably going to look different in the next couple of years. With a prospect as good as Phillips on the board, drafting him to replace Jones and re-signing Reddick will give the Cardinals a formidable pass rush for the foreseeable future. If the Cardinals want to continue to close the gap with the Rams and Seahawks, they can't let their pass rush decline.
    
17. Las Vegas Raiders - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama. Every year a couple players drop farther than they should. This year, one of those players is Jaylen Waddle. The Raiders need to improve their defense, and there are some tempting players on the board for the Raiders to take, such as Gregory Rousseau. But the Raiders outside threats could have been better this year, and Jon Gruden will jump at the opportunity to put Waddle with Waller and Ruggs. Waddle is up there with the best weapons in this class, so this is a great value for the Raiders at 17.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida. Having already landed one of the best defensive players, Miami now turns its attention to surrounding Tagovailoa with the talent to thrive. The Dolphins got good production from DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki, but could upgrade the rest of their receiving corps. Toney is electric and gives the Dolphins a playmaker over the middle of the field, which is exactly what Miami could use to help Tagovailoa grow.
    
19. Washington Football Team - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida. Washington didn't get their QB in this draft, but they get incredible value at 19 in Pitts. Besides Terry McLaurin, Washington doesn't really have a true playmaker at receiver so Pitts would immediately upgrade the offense. Given how good Washington's defense is, if they can't get a QB by trading up their main goal should be to improve their weapons and Pitts would be the ideal scenario.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami (FL). The Giants biggest need is probably their wide receiver room, but with the top prospect on the board being a pass rusher, the Giants go with one of the highest upside defensive prospects in the class in Rousseau. The Giants don't have a lot of talent on the edge, so they fill a need here.
    
21. Indianapolis Colts - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. The Colts have boasted one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in recent years, and with Anthony Castonzo retiring, the Colts will want to keep their line in top shape by drafting his replacement. His length, athleticism, and intelligence make him the preferred tackle target for the Colts here.
    
22. Tennessee Titans - EDGE Joseph Ossai, Texas. The Titans are a very good team, and most improvements that could be made would be to improve depth. But the one area the Titans desperately need to improve if they want to legitimately compete for championships is their pass rush and defensive line. Ossai is the most explosive pass rush prospect left on the board who can fit with their defensive scheme.
    
23. San Francisco 49ers (from New York Jets via Seattle) – QB Mac Jones, Alabama. The 49ers move up to get the guy they believe can be their next franchise QB. In this scenario, the 49ers were targeting Trey Lance at 12, but because of the Chicago trade, they opted instead to take Horn, who is higher on the draft board and can help their secondary which will be losing some pieces to free agency. When Mac Jones gets past Washington at 19, they believe they can move up into the mid-20s for a reasonable value and get their QB. The best value in terms of trading draft capital is at 23, and they have to make this move to get ahead of Pittsburgh who could potentially take Jones to replace Ben Roethlisberger. The 49ers are now without a pick until the 5th round, but it's worth it to secure their QB of the future.
    
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan. The Steelers cap space isn't great right now, although Roethlisberger restructuring his contract will help. In any case, the Steelers are going to have to move on from some players, and one that makes sense is Alejandro Villanueva. He's played well, but he's going to be 33 next year, and rather than paying a veteran LT salary with tight cap space, it makes sense to draft his replacement. Mayfield is very technically sound and is nasty, two things that have defined Pittsburgh offensive line play over the years. There may be concern about him playing right tackle at Michigan, but as Jedrick Wills proved for the Browns, a move to left tackle is possible for a top prospect. Running back is also a possibility here, but there's better value in later rounds.
    
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Trevon Moehrig, TCU. The Jaguars weren't accidentally the number one pick. They were terrible on both offense and defense, and with so much early draft capital they don't have to reach on players in the name of protecting Lawrence at all costs. The Jaguars have some nice weapons on offense, and there will be good offensive line prospects on the board in the second round. They need to improve their secondary badly, and Moehrig is an immediate impact player with good versatility, and would be an instant upgrade over Josh Jones, who should not return to the team in 2021. Moehrig is arguably the highest graded prospect left on the board, he has a high floor, he's ready to play right away, and he fills a need.
    
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa. The Browns have a lot of holes on defense, and linebacker in particular is an area that they need to address. Despite being massive for a linebacker, Collins is quick and athletic and can play in coverage. He also has good pass rushing ability, which is an area that Cleveland needs to improve opposite of Myles Garrett. His versatility makes him valuable in multiple packages which should help him get on the field early, something that Cleveland should value at the end of the first round given that their competitive window is open.
    
27. Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, but with such a good, deep running attack, the Ravens can afford to wait until the second round. The Ravens have several pass rushers set to become free agents, and they won't be able to bring all of them back. In any case, the Ravens could use an upgrade at the position anyway. Although Ojulari played in 4 man fronts, his size, speed, and athleticism make him a natural fit as an edge rusher in a 3 man front defense. His energy is also a great fit for the Ravens defense.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State. The Saints have the worst cap situation in the NFL and because of that they're going to lose some key free agents. One guy that they almost certainly will not be able to retain is breakout DE Trey Hendrickson, who registered 13.5 sacks in 2020 and should be in line for a nice raise on the free agent market. Oweh has tremendous upside due to his freakish athleticism, explosiveness, and length. He's a bit raw, and will need some time to develop, but with Cameron Jordan on the opposite side of the line Oweh is the type of player the Saints can afford to target.
    
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Tutu Atwell, Louisville. Aaron Rodgers covers the deficiencies of the wide receiver room well, but the Packers do need to improve their weapons. Adams and Tonyan are good pieces, but St. Brown, Lazard, and Valdez-Scantling can't be the secondary options at wide receiver. Adding an electric slot receiver in Atwell makes sense given the profile of the rest of the receivers on the roster.
    
30. Buffalo Bills - EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington. The Bills have a very complete roster, but they could definitely improve their pass rush. Getting to the quarterback, namely Patrick Mahomes, will be the Bills best chance of getting over the hump and into the Super Bowl. Tryon is a nice scheme fit, and should be able to see the field instantly, something a contender like Buffalo will be looking for here. I was tempted to mock a running back here, as there's great talent left on the board, but I think the Bills are more likely to ride with their 3rd round picks from 2019 and 2020, Singletary and Moss.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington. The Buccaneers have a loaded offense, so the focus should be on the defense, specifically the defensive line. With Gholston having only one more year on his contract, and Suh set to be a free agent, a high upside 3-tech like Onwuzurike makes a lot of sense here. Not to mention, a team that is good enough to make the super bowl can afford to draft BPA, and Onwuzurike is among the best players still on the board here.
    
32. Kansas City Chiefs - OL Alex Leatherwood, Alabama. Kansas City needs to start getting younger on the offensive line. Both Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz are under contract for 2021, but after that they're free agents. Leatherwood has shown the versatility to slide in anywhere on the line, and could be a day one starter for the Chiefs wherever they need him. This pick could also be used on another weapon or a defensive player, but the value here is too good for Leatherwood.
    

Round 2

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Dayvion Nixon, Iowa. One of the hallmarks of Urban Meyer's Florida and Ohio State teams were deep, talented defensive lines. The Jaguars have a few nice pieces in Josh Allen and Doug Costin, but overall the unit needs to improve. Nixon is one of only a few interior defensive line prospects who offers high upside impact, and getting him here at the start of the second round is good value.
   
2. New York Jets - CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern. The Jets have problems with their cornerbacks. Their best cornerback is set to be a free agent, but even if he returns he's only a slot corner. Bryce Hall has shown a lot of promise, but there's not much on the roster behind him. Newsome is a smart, instinctive corner who will fit into Saleh's scheme nicely, and should be ready to compete for a starting role early.
   
3. Atlanta Falcons - RB Najee Harris, Alabama. While it may be unlikely that there are no running backs in the first round (hasn't happened since 2014), I think this draft is so talented that it could happen. As I said earlier, I think the Arthur Smith will try to make win now moves and having a power running game is an important part of Arthur Smith's offensive philosophy. Najee Harris is the top running back on the board and the top prospect left on the board, so everything from fit to value is excellent here for Atlanta.
   
4. Miami Dolphins (from Houston) - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson. Another running back off the board, this time it's the electric back from Clemson. Having already added Toney, now the Miami offense gets arguably the top receiving back in the class. This move makes the offense one of the fastest in the league, and the combination of Etienne and Gaskin gives the Dolphins one of the best young running back rooms in the league.
   
5. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Eric Stokes, Georgia. I nearly went with a CB in round 1 for the Eagles, but it was too hard to pass up on a receiver. The Eagles have a nice CB1 in Slay, but he's getting older and the rest of the CB group needs to be upgraded. Stokes has the ideal size, speed, and length that teams are looking for on the outside and has the experience to challenge for a starting spot early.
   
6. Cincinnati Bengals - EDGE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh. The Bengals already added a top offensive lineman for Burrow, but they have to address the defense early on. Even if the Bengals re-sign Lawson, they need to have more talent on the defensive line to get pressure on opposing QBs. Jones is a good scheme fit and his versatility makes him an attractive option here in the 2nd round.
   
7. Carolina Panthers - LB Nick Bolton, Missouri. The Panthers add another impact playmaker for Phil Snow's defense, a guy who could fill the void that they were unable to fill after Keuchly's retirement. There are several options here, but Bolton at 39 is incredible value and the Panthers jump all over a guy with first round upside.
   
8. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - C Landon Dickerson, Alabama. Ted Karras is set to be a free agent, but Miami can upgrade the center position here and get the best prospect at the position in the draft. Dickerson has positional versatility and is well respected for his leadership so this is a great value and culture pick for Miami.
   
9. Detroit Lions - CB Aaron Robinson, UCF. Robinson has the ideal size and length that NFL teams look for, and he's got a lot of experience both inside and outside. The production from the Lions CB room was abysmal in 2020, so more talent needs to be added, even if Jeff Okudah makes the expected year two leap.
   
10. New York Giants - WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC. Dave Gettleman is a meat and potatoes guy, and he got his high upside defensive lineman in the first round. But he's going to have to start giving Daniel Jones weapons if they really believe he's the future. Obviously getting Saquon Barkley back will help, but the wide receiver room is aging, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is an outside receiver with WR1 potential who can inject youth and talent into that position group for the Giants.
    
11. New York Jets (from San Francisco) - OG Wyatt Davis, Ohio State. The fact that the Jets have a weak offensive line is no secret. Mekhi Becton was a home run draft pick at left tackle last season, but the Jets need to continue adding offensive line talent to avoid their next franchise QB getting killed. Despite another All-American season, Davis' 2020 tape is not as good as his 2019 tape, so he falls to the mid-2nd here. While there are some concerns, he's the best interior offensive line prospect left on the board and he does have upside.
    
12. Dallas Cowboys - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama. The Cowboys defense needs to improve, especially in the run game. Neville Gallimore showed promise, but adding Barmore gives the defensive line a lot more depth and talent. Barmore has the experience to step in right away and produce, something that will be important for the Cowboys who should be looking to win a down NFC East with a healthy Prescott.
    
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota) - TE Pat Freiermuth, Penn State. Friermuth is an excellent pass catching TE, but he's also one of the better blocking tight ends in this class. This versatility addresses two needs for Jaguars on offense. There's a lot of upside in the Jaguars WR room, so adding a playmaker at TE makes sense, especially because their top tight ends are getting older.
    
14. New England Patriots - WR Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU. The Patriots need to address the wide receiver position, and after passing on a WR in the first round they land a falling Marshall with the 46th pick, so the Patriots end up with a great value in the 2nd round.
    
15. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State. The Chargers line was so bad, and the value at 47 is so good, that I'm going to mock the Chargers double dipping at offensive line with their first two picks. Sam Tevi's contract is up, and he was not good enough to re-sign. The Chargers have to upgrade this spot, and getting a guy like Jenkins here is an easy decision.
    
16. Las Vegas Raiders - DT Marlon Tuipulotu, USC. The Raiders need to upgrade the defensive line, especially on the interior where Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins were not high impact players. Tuipulotu has great strength and technique, and has three years of starting experience so he should be ready to start right away for the Raiders.
    
17. Arizona Cardinals - CB Asante Samuel Jr., Florida State. Arguably the biggest need for Arizona is cornerback, but with the way the board fell in the first the value was better for other positions of need. Here in the 2nd, they get one of the stickiest corners in the draft. He's a bit undersized, but he's great in man coverage and will be a good scheme fit for Vance Joseph's defense.
    
18. Miami Dolphins - EDGE Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma. The Dolphins pick for the fifth time in this mock already, and have addressed a lot of needs so far. One area where they could get better is pass rush depth. While Perkins doesn't jump out as an ideal fit in Flores' defensive scheme, he's got the size, strength, and athleticism should allow him to transition to a standup edge rusher, or rotate in on pass rush situations with his hand on the dirt. He's got all the tools to create pressure in the NFL, and would give Flores a weapon that would allow him to get creative with his defensive play calls.
    
19. Washington Football Team - OT Samuel Cosmi, Texas. Washington has an aging line, so getting some youth in the building would be a good strategy. Cornelius Lucas played well enough to have a chance to win the starting LT job in 2021, but he'll be 30 and in a contract year and Morgan Moses will have two years left on his contract. Financially it would make sense to get a long term solution at tackle early in the draft. Cosmi's strengths are a good fit for Scott Turner's blocking schemes.
    
20. New York Giants (from Chicago) - CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia. Using this additional pick acquired from Chicago, the Giants address three of their biggest needs in the first two rounds by taking Campbell to go with Rousseau and St. Brown. There are definitely issues on Campbell's tape, but his assignment's in Graham's defense should minimize those weaknesses while maximizing his strength in man coverage. Campbell has elite size, length, and athleticism, so he has tremendous upside.
    
21. Tennessee Titans - WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. The Titans have a very good offense, but are likely going to move on from Corey Davis after the emergence of A.J. Brown. Adding arguably the most electric playmaker in the draft, Rondale Moore, would help keep the Titans offense among the most potent in the NFL.
    
22. New York Jets (from Indianapolis) - RB Javonte Williams, UNC. The Jets need to add some weapons, and with Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims on the roster, and better free agent options such as Allen Robinson, Corey Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kenny Golladay potentially hitting the market, the Jets can add the best weapon on the board, Javonte Williams. He's excellent in the passing game and should fit nicely with the new running scheme.
    
23. Kansas City Chiefs (from Pittsburgh) - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota. With one of the top WR prospects still on the board, and a number of teams ahead of them who could look for a WR, the Chiefs pull the trigger and move up. The Steelers, who have a lot of players headed to free agency, are happy to move down and get more draft picks to try to rebuild the roster with cheaper contracts. Bateman is a good route runner with excellent high point skills, so he's a perfect fit in the offense to replace Watkins.
    
24. Seattle Seahawks - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State. The Seahawks need to make a move on the offensive line at some point, and Radunz is a good prospect here. Cedric Ogbuehi is a free agent, but they could upgrade at RT anyway, and Duane Brown is 35 and only has one year left on his contract. The Seahawks could possibly look at a pass rusher or cornerback here, but the best value on the board is at tackle.
    
25. Los Angeles Rams - LB Baron Browning, Ohio State. There are rumblings that some teams view Browning as a potential first round talent. The athleticism is off the charts, and he's got the speed, explosiveness, length, and motor that NFL teams covet. The upside is undeniable and he's lauded for his character and leadership. Combine that with his experience and versatility, and he's the kind of guy who can come in right away and upgrade the Rams inside linebacker spot, one of the few positions that needs a major upgrade for a team that's going all in to win a Super Bowl.
    
26. Baltimore Ravens - WR Nico Collins, Michigan. The Ravens need to give Lamar Jackson better weapons on the outside, and Nico Collins has elite size and vertical ball skills, something the Ravens are missing at wide receiver. A lot of the best remaining day 2 caliber receivers are better suited for a slot role, so the Ravens pull the trigger on one of the best outside guys left on the board.
    
27. Cleveland Browns - EDGE Jordan Smith, UAB. The Browns desperately need to get some pass rushing help opposite of Myles Garrett. There are some red flags with Smith, but the size and athleticism of Smith make him too good to pass up here. With Collins and Smith, the Browns defense gets a lot bigger, faster, and more talented.
    
28. New Orleans Saints - LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina. All of the Saints moves are going to be made with the salary cap in mind. One of the obvious cost saving moves is to cut Kwon Alexander. The Saints would save more than $13 million without taking on any dead money. Surratt is an excellent player who provides the Saints good value here.
    
29. Buffalo Bills - DT Jay Tufele, USC. The Bills will want to add a cornerback at some point, but with the way the board has fallen Tufele is too good of a value here to pass up on. The Bills need to get better interior defensive line play, and Tufele fits nicely into Frazier's defensive scheme, so this is a good fit as well.
    
30. Green Bay Packers - CB Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse. The Packers could address a number of positions here, but Kevin King played poorly and is set to become a free agent anyway. Melifonwu has elite size, and has been climbing draft boards. He may be a bit of a project, but we're getting into the range where there are very few instant impact guys left on the board.
    
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma. With Donovan Smith, Ryan Jensen, and Aaron Stinnie's contracts all set to expire either this year or next year, adding some offensive line help makes sense. Jensen is the weakest of the group, and will likely walk in 2021 if the Buccaneers can acquire a top prospect through the draft. Regardless, the Buccaneers are going to have to add more depth to the center group so the talented Humphrey fills a need.
    
32. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - RB Michael Carter, North Carolina. James Conner is set to be a free agent, and it makes financial sense for the Steelers to move on from him. Carter is an excellent value at the bottom of the second round, and he's excellent in the passing game, so he'll be a great fit for the Steelers. Running backs also have the ability to make an impact right away, which is crucial for a team looking to make one last run with QB Ben Roethlisberger.
    

Third Round

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - OT Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame.
   
2. New York Jets - WR Elijah Moore, Ole Miss.
   
3. Houston Texans - S Jevon Holland, Oregon.
   
4. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE, Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forrest.
   
5. Cincinnati Bengals - WR D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan.
   
6. Philadelphia Eagles - EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami (FL).
   
7. Miami Dolphins (from Denver) - S Richie Grant, UCF.
   
8. Detroit Lions - LB Cameron McGrone, Michigan.
   
9. Carolina Panthers - QB Kyle Trask, Florida.
   
10. Washington Football Team (from San Francisco) - CB Elijah Molden, Washington.
    
11. Dallas Cowboys - LB Pete Werner, Ohio State.
    
12. New York Giants - OT James Hudson, Cincinnati.
    

XX. New England Patriots - Forfeited

1. Los Angeles Chargers - DT Tommy Togiai, Ohio State.
   
2. Minnesota Vikings - OG Ben Cleveland, Georgia.
   
3. Arizona Cardinals - C Josh Myers, Ohio State.
   
4. Las Vegas Raiders - S Ar'Darius Washington, TCU.
   
5. Miami Dolphins - CB Shaun Wade, Ohio State.
   
6. Washington Football Team - WR Tylan Wallace, Oklahoma State.
   
7. Chicago Bears - OT Walker Little, Stanford.
   
8. Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Oregon State.
   
9. Tennessee Titans - DT Marvin Wilson, Florida State.
   
10. New York Jets (from Seattle) - LB Charles Snowden, Virginia.
    
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - WR Shi Smith, South Carolina.
    
12. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams) - S Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida State.
    
13. Cleveland Browns - DT Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh.
    
14. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) - WR Amari Rodgers, Clemson.
    
15. Cleveland Browns (from New Orleans) - WR Seth Williams, Auburn.
    
16. Green Bay Packers - EDGE Payton Turner, Houston.
    
17. Buffalo Bills - CB Paulson Adebo, Stanford.
    
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - EDGE Dayo Odeyingbo, Vanderbilt.
    
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (from Kansas City) - TE Brevin Jordan, Miami (FL).
    

Compensatory Picks

1. New England Patriots - QB Davis Mills, Stanford.
   
2. Los Angeles Chargers - TE Hunter Long, Boston College.
   
3. New Orleans Saints - RB Jermar Jefferson, Oregon State.
   
4. Dallas Cowboys - S Andre Cisco, Syracuse.
   
5. Tennessee Titans - OT Brady Christensen, BYU.
   
6. Los Angeles Rams - CB Israel Mukuamu, South Carolina.
   
7. San Francisco 49ers - EDGE Victor Dimukeje, Duke.
   
8. Los Angeles Rams - OT Spencer Brown, Northern Iowa.
   
9. Baltimore Ravens - DT Tyler Shelvin, LSU.
   
10. New Orleans Saints - CB Kary Vincent Jr., LSU.
    

Trades:
Indianapolis Colts receive: QB Sam Darnold New York Jets receive: Indianapolis 2021 2nd, 5th
This trade value is based on internet rumors and a similar trade in 1987, where the San Francisco 49ers sent a 2nd and 4th round pick to Tampa Bay for 2nd year starter Steve Young. Steve Young was 3-16, with 11 TDs, 21 INTs, a 53.3 comp% and a 63.1 QB rating in two seasons with Tampa Bay but his upside netted a nice return. I think for several reasons, such as the fact that neither Douglas nor Saleh drafted Darnold and the potential to reset the cap window by drafting a 1st round QB, the Jets will trade Darnold. The Colts have a good offensive line and much better weapons than the Jets, so Indianapolis could be a good destination for Darnold after they missed out on Stafford.
***
Denver receives: Houston 2021 1st (3) via Miami Miami receives: Denver 2021 1st (9), 2nd (40), 3rd (71), 2022 1st, 2nd, 2023 2nd
***
Chicago receives: New York Giants 2021 1st (11) New York Giants receive: Chicago 1st (20), 2nd (52), 2022 1st
***
San Francisco receives: Seattle 2021 1st (23) via New York Jets New York Jets receive: San Francisco 2021 2nd (43), 4th, 2022 2nd
***
Kansas City receives: Pittsburgh 2021 2nd (55) Pittsburgh receives: Kansas City 2021 2nd (64), 3rd (95) ***
QB Notes: New England signs Ryan Fitzpatrick Indianapolis trades for Sam Darnold from New York Jets New Orleans re-signs Jameis Winston Washington re-signs Kyle Allen

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.

The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs are now over, and there's a lot to really think about. In this mock draft, I have a few trades, including a block buster to help find the successor for a QB headed for Canton, as well as a blockbuster deal in which a team that is currently at dumpster fire status get's their lost draft capita back. Here's the mock draft.
1 - Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
Nothing to say here. They didn't call this season 'Tank for Trevor' for nothing, now did they?
2 - New York Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
TRADE - Dolphins send 3rd overall pick to the New Orleans Saints, in exchange for 28th overall pick in 2020, Saints' 2nd round pick in 2020, Saints' 3rd round pick in 2020, Saints' 1st round pick in 2021, Saints 3rd round pick in 2021, and Saints 4th round pick in 2021, and maybe more...
3 - New Orleans Saints - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
The Drew Brees era has ended in New Orleans after a long, and impressive run. At 42 years of age, Brees walks away from the game as 13x pro bowler, a two time OPOTY winner, a super bowl champion (2009), and many other accolades and accomplishments under his belt. With the greatest QB in Saint's history now gone, it's time for New Orleans to fill in the big shoes left by the legend. The Saints are in no position to blow up their roster and tank in the wake of Brees' apparent retirement. They've got a 20+ million dollar WR in Michael Thomas, one of the highest paid RBs in Alvin Kamara, a star-studded OL, a great defense featuring Cameron Jordan, the breakout Trey Hendrickson, Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Malcolm Jenkins. This team really can't afford to tank for a top QB in 2022 like Sam Howell, or Spencer Rattler. What they can afford, is to give up a lot to receive a lot in Justin Fields. While his 2020 season wasn't anything to ride home about, Justin Fields is still more than likely going to have a great career in the NFL, and frankly what better place for him to go than the Big Easy, which will have a fantastic team around him unlike many other high end QBs in the draft. New Orleans will most certainly be giving up their first round picks for this year, and next year in order to land the coveted college football superstar, and set up their franchise for possibly another 12-15 years.
4 - Atlanta Falcons - Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama
QB is at the top of Atlanta's wishlist, but if they are unable to land neither Wilson, nor Fields, then Atlanta could target one of the biggest receiving talents in CFB history, in Devonta Smith to create the best WR core in the entire NFL. Reportedly, Julio Jones has been the center of trade discussions with the Falcons, as they enter a new era after firing coach Dan Quinn. If Julio goes, then Smith, who is wickedly talented at route running, & separation, could provide the Falcon's receiving department with more than enough insurance if Jones departs. If Jones doesn't leave, then you've still got a ridiculous WR trio for at least the next two years, until Calvin Ridley hits free agency.
5 - Cincinnati Bengals - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon
Sewell is a generational talent at OT, and if the former Outland Trophy winner were to fall to the Bengals at #5, then it's a no-brainer to get him to protect Burrow. Sewell is just 20 years old, he has plenty of room to improve, and with his youth, he could have a 15+ year career barring any injury.
6 - Philadelphia Eagles - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU
Jalen Hurts has some promise in Philly, but he needs some targets. Neither Desean Jackson, nor Alshon Jeffrey can stay healthy, and all you have left is Greg Ward, who is becoming a free agent, and Travis Fulgham who fell off hard after a pretty impressive four game stretch earlier this year. It's time for Philadelphia to get a new WR1, and LSU's Ja'Marr Chase has all of the makings to be the next big thing in Philly. Chase's ridiculous 2019 campaign was so good, that he didn't even need to play in 2020 in order to cement his status as a top 10 pick. It's universally agreed that he is a top 10 level prospect, and his rookie year in Philly should be special.
7 - Detroit Lions - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
The three top receivers for Detroit will become free agents. While the Lions will likely retain at least one of them (probably going to be Golliday), they will need to reload in this department in order to keep their offense up. Jaylen Waddle was on pace for a ridiculous 2020 season, up until he broke his ankle last October, but in the games we did see him, he was arguably just as unguardable as Devonta Smith. While Smitty was the precise tactician in that stacked Bama receiving corps, Waddle was the dynamite playmaker, who was one of the top downfield threats in the country. Waddle will most certainly make Detroit explosive upon arrival.
8 - Carolina Panthers - Micah Parson, LB, Penn State
I originally had Carolina taking Isaiah Simmons last season, but they passed on him for Derrick Brown instead. Ever since the departure of Luke Kuechly, the team has been in dire need of a leader at LB, and Penn State's Micah Parsons is the one to do it. Parsons can play the Panthers system, and his quickness, and instincts are incredible for the position.
TRADE - Denver Broncos send 9th overall pick + more to the Houston Texans in exchange for QB Deshaun Watson, + a late draft pick.
9 - Houston Texans - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
The second big shocker of the night. In this scenario, Denver wins the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, and in return Houston gets its lost draft capita from the O'Brien era. Houston could use this pick to get a lineman like Slater, or a DB like Surtain or Farley, but Kyle Pitts at this point is the best overall player on the board, and he's one of the best TE prospects to come out in a good while. Pitts will likely be the top receiver for Houston, even as a rookie, Deshaun Watson gets an acceptable trade for his sake, and Denver FINALLY gets its QB of the future. This was my favorite move on this mock draft.
10 - Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
Completely unrelated, but I just wanted check in and see if y'all were still them boys...nah I'm just kidding. But in all honesty, the Cowboys need some help in their secondary, since they just lost Byron Jones a year ago, and Chidobe Awuzie, plus a few others enter free agency, leaving just 2nd year man Trevon Diggs by himself. Reunite him with his former college teammate, Patrick Surtain II, the son of Patrick Sr, who was a 3x pro bowler as a DB during his time in the league. Surtain is a smooth operating corner, whose efforts with the Tide in 2020 earned him SEC DPOTY honors.
11 - New York Giants - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
I think that the G-Men will get some pass rushing help in free agency, by way of someone like Haason Reddick or Matt Judon. If they do that, which they probably will, then they can go after the stud LB prospect of Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who had a huge 2020 season, winning the Butkus award, and helping Notre Dame make it to the College Football Playoff. JOK has some fantastic instincts, and some frightening closing speed to attack the backfield, and make plays. Not to mention, he is small enough to where he can drop back into coverage, but big enough not to get pushed around.
12 - San Francisco 49ers - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
It's become evident that Jimmy G just isn't the guy to hold the reins for the 49er offense in the coming years. He's pretty average as an NFL QB in general, and he's well below average for a QB that has a nine figure contract, and on top of that, he has played only one full season as the starter with San Fran, missing 13 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020. While I expect Jimmy G to start next year, I think it's time for San Fran to get the next guy for the job. Mac Jones, a Heisman finalist this past season had just about as perfect of a season you could have for a college QB. Jones has pinpoint accuracy, and terrific decision making. I think that Jones will stew behind Garoppolo, and get coached up in his rookie season, then he will eventually get turned lose, in the 49ers offense.
13 - Los Angeles Chargers - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern
Slater has risen up draft boards from 2nd round status, to early 1st round status without even playing game during 2020. Many scouts highlight his brilliant performance against Ohio State in 2019, in which he stifled current NFL star edge rusher Chase Young in their showdown. Slater is versatile enough to play at OG as well, which is really where the Chargers could use some help at right now.
14 - Minnesota Vikings - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech
Minnesota's ability to protect Kirk Cousins was not too good in 2020. Cousins was sacked 39 times last season. Christian Darrisaw is one of the best offensive tackles in the class with good size for the position, and a ton of praise from scouts around the country.
15 - New England Patriots - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
The Patriots could use some help up front for their DL. They allowed the 7th most rushing yards in the entire league across all of last regular season, allowing around 131 yards per game. When you compete in a conference that has runners like Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, the entire Ravens backfield, Josh Allen when he feels dangerous, and even Kansas City who isn't really bad at the run themselves, then you need to do what you can to slow that down. Meet Christian Barmore, the massive Alabama defensive lineman who gained a ton of positive attention thanks to his dominant performance against Ohio State in the national championship game. Barmore, in my opinion has ascended to the top of the IDL big board, thanks to his disruptiveness, his shocking quickness, and his ability to rush the passer, as well as a disrupt the running game make him a great get for the New England Patriots at 15th overall.
16 - Arizona Cardinals - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
Now while I did say that Najee Harris was the best RB in this class, I just feel that Travis Etienne fits the Cardinal's system more than Najee. Etienne reminds me a lot of Kenyan Drake, who hits free agency this spring. He's a long built, yet quick runner with a keen ability to catch the football. Etienne could make Arizona's defense a legit threat in the coming years.
17 - Las Vegas Raiders - Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami
When it comes to drafting in the first round, the Raiders do their own thing. They've always been one to reach with their first round selection, showing this with picks like Kolton Miller, Karl Joseph, Damon Arnette, and most infamous as of recent, Clelin Ferrell, who they picked over Josh Allen, which I am still frustrated about to this day. I don't see the Raiders leaving this odd, and borderline comedic trend behind in Oakland, and as a matter of fact, I can see history repeating itself year after year. Jaelan Phillips, who used to play for UCLA, and was a 5 star prospect in high school, finally seemed to hit his stride after dealing with many injuries, and transferring across the country to Miami. Phillips athletic ability, and natural pass rushing tools were on display in the latter half of Miami's 2020 season, and while Phillips currently has a 2nd round grade, I don't see this stopping the Raiders from passing on him over other players projected to go in round 1 (however I think there is a lot more upside to Phillips than past 1st round picks by the Raiders).
18 - Miami Dolphins - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
I've become extremely impressed with Nagurski Award winner, Zaven Collins, a defender that combines a staggering amount of size (6'4", 260 lbs), and a surprising amount of speed, and mobility in coverage that makes Collins such a difficult player to face. Collins can be an excellent addition to the Dolphins defense.
19 - Washington Football Team - Trey Lance, QB, ND State
Washington is one QB away from being a legitimate contender in the NFC; not a 7-9 division leader, not fringe wild card team, a legit contender. Do I think this happens within a year? No. If Washington ends up with Trey Lance, they must use him right. He needs to be brought up in the shadows of a veteran QB for at least a season, before getting on the field, similar to what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes. The starter for that KC team with rookie Mahomes was Alex Smith. The potential starter for this team with a rookie Trey Lance: Alex Smith. Of course with the depletion of Smith's career because of that brutal leg injury in 2018, Smith may not be playing for Washington despite an inspiring comeback season, potentially the greatest comeback season ever for any NFL player.
20 - Chicago Bears - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama
The Outland Trophy winner for Alabama has moved around the entire line like many linemen do under coach Nick Saban. The Bears need some help up front, and Leatherwood is an extremely versatile option who is as good of a run blocker as they come.
21 - Indianapolis Colts - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
T.Y. Hilton, who has really fallen off recently, as well as Zach Pascal, are both free agents for Indy. The only guy they've got is Michael Pittman, who they drafted just last year. While I expect big things from the former USC standout in his sophomore season, this WR group needs a ton of assistance due to it's lack of diversity. Ohio State's Chris Olave was one of Justin Fields' favorite targets across the QB's two year career with the Buckeyes. Olave is sound route runner, with good hands, and solid ability in getting separation.
22 - Tennessee Titans - Azeez Ojulari, LB, Georgia
My team, the Tennessee Titans is probably the most desperate team for a franchise pass rusher. Seeing this pass rush week in, and week out was painful. They recorded the 3rd least sacks, and opposing QBs averaged a 97.5 passer rating (9th highest), when facing Tennessee. The weak pass rush gave QBs more time to make throws downfield, thus tiring the secondary, and making the defense slower. Azeez Ojulari is one of the better LB prospects in this draft class, showing the ability to play standup, but also along the edge, which is where he did really well at in his last season with the Bulldogs. Check out his games against Tennessee, and Alabama, and you will see how he was able to outclass many offensive linemen in those two games.
TRADE - New York Jets send 23rd overall pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the 26th overall pick, as well as a mid round pick in either 2021 or 2022.
23 - Cleveland Browns - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
The Browns could be looking for a complementary edge rusher for Myles Garrett with Olivier Vernon departing in free agency. Vernon surged late in 2020, but a very unfortunate achilles injury derailed his hopes to make some more noise in the post season. Kwity Paye, who was projected to go 2nd-3rd round after 2019, exploded thanks to a chaotic performance against Minnesota, in which he had 3 sacks in a row on a 4th qtr drive. While Paye may have small stature, he has enough upside that should make Cleveland want to roll the dice on him.
24 - Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Pittsburgh has struggled to run the football. They were dead last in total rushing yards as a team, with the 5th least total rushing attempts, and the least YPC (3.6). James Conner and Benny Snell just don't seem to have the answers. But my solution is for Pittsburgh to dip into the pool known as RBU, aka Alabama. Najee Harris was the Doak Walker winner for a reason, becoming a wrecking ball bruiser, that just so happens to be able to catch the ball really well, and jump over defenders that are standing straight up. Najee can help make Big Ben, or the next Steeler QB's job easier with his versatile skillset for the position.
25 - Jacksonville Jaguars* - Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have provided some of the best linemen in the NFL, like Ronnie Stanley, Zack Martin, and Quenton Nelson to name a few. Liam Eichenberg made the first team all ACC, and was a consensus All-American in 2020. He has overall very sound fundamentals, and I actually think he has the potential to be a legitimate lineman in the NFL.
26 - New York Jets* - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
As previously mentioned, the Jets will be selecting Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick. With Breshad Perriman entering free agency, the Jets need a receiving facelift in order to provide Wilson with the much needed tools for success. Bateman appears to have the potential to be a WR1, and help give the Jet's atrocious offense something to be excited about.
27 - Baltimore Ravens - Terrace Marshall Jr, WR, LSU
The latest product of LSU, Marshall has been regularly playing since last year, getting reps alongside Ja'Marr Chase, and current pro bowl WR Justin Jefferson. The Ravens offense will get jolt of energy from Marshall, who is impressively built for the position, and who has a keen ability to run routes well.
28 - Miami Dolphins* - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas
The Dolphins use their second 1st round pick of the draft to help protect Tua. Samuel Cosmi has the positional versatility of a Bama lineman, with the build of the ideal OT. His large stature towers at 6'7", over 300 lbs. He'll add some legit experience points.
29 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Joseph Ossai, LB, Texas
Thanks to the Buccaneers, I was right about TB (both the team and the player) pulling the upset in NOLA. Regardless, at the end of this season, the Bucs need to fill some much anticipated holes this offseason, and many players are likely gone. If Shaquil Barrett is one of those, then Tampa needs an edge rusher, and they need one pronto.
30 - Kansas City Chiefs - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
The Chiefs are about as perfect as you can get on offense, but some help up front won't hurt at all. Vera-Tucker from USC showed that he has the skill to play at IOL, and OT. While he is built for OG.
31 - Buffalo Bills - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
A draft pick like this could be a steal for Buffalo, with Nick Bolton providing several bolts of energy, and momentum into these nights. Bolton is a quick, powerful linebacker, and one of the SEC's finest.
32 - Green Bay Packers - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
If your name is either Green Bay, Buffalo, or Kansas City then you can really get under the skin of defensive coordinators by taking this guy. Rondale Moore when healthy, is a juggernaut, who is one of the best receivers after the catch. If the Packers decide to finally take a WR in round1, then the earth could shatter.
​
THANK YOU FOR READING, COMMENT WHAT YOU THINK, GOOD NIGHT

32. Houston Texans, 4-12 (previous rank: 30)
With it being official that the Texans cut JJ Watt. the Texans are dead last in the NFL. The Texans, even with JJ Watt, ended 4-12 and third in their division. They were beaten by teams that they shouldn't have lost too, including the Bengals, and some games were hilariously too close for comfort, especially the Jaguars game that ended at 25 - 27.
The Texans are in a terrible position, and if Deshaun Watson is traded. . .then this team could have a 0-16 season.
31. Detroit Lions, 5-11 (previous rank: 31)
The Lions could be contenders for the 2022 and 2024 seasons, earning themselves two extra first round draft picks, but they definitely won't this season. Even with Stafford, a top ten QB, they finished at 5-11, worst in their division. Now they'll be playing with Jared Goff, who is a downgrade. They might get a higher ranking if they draft correctly this season.
30. New York Jets, 2-14 (previous Rank: 31)
The Jets are quite possibly the most interesting offseason team. They have a lot of cap space and draft picks at their disposal and, unlike the Texans and lions, have a lot to work with. If they can get Deshaun Watson, they could be playoff contenders. It actually get's better. According to Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald - one of the top reporters in the business - the Jet's are Watson's preferred team. If they manage to get him the Jets could be ejected to the top 16.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1-15 (previous rank: 32)
NOTE: this ranking assumes that Trevor Lawrence is on the roster. If Lawrence is, then the Jaguars can no longer be ranked as the worst team in the NFL.. Their offense is a little below average, but they do have some weapons. Unfortunately, this team can't rank any higher as their defense is a complete disaster.
28. Philadelphia Eagles, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 29)
The Eagles are most likely trading Carson Wentz, but the front office probably overpriced him. They are demanding two second round draft picks, but they should probably be the ones giving it away. The Eagles finished lower than even my expectations, and I hate the Eagles. (My Father is a Washington fan)
27. Cincinnati Bengals, 4-11-1 (previous rank: 28)
I joked about the Bengals starting a cardboard cutout of Penei Sewell at left tackle in 2021 because they ruined their chances of landing him with a late win, but the Dolphins could conceivably select Devonta Smith, which would mean Sewell would be the pick at No. 5. That's the good news. The bad news is that Joe Burrow may not be ready for the season opener. Cincinnati is difficult to rank for that reason.
26. North Carolina Panthers, 5-11 (previous rank: 22)
Teddy Bridgewater was not Teddy Bridgewater this season. He threw for countless end zone interceptions just in week 17, and the Panthers, overall, finished third in their division with a record of 5-11, and there was little difference from the 2019 season.
25. Atlanta Falcons, 4-12 (previous rank: 25)
The Falcons say that they plan on retaining Matt Ryan, but with a cap space 31 million dollars over, it seems very unlikely. If Atlanta Selects Justin Fields or Zach Wilson, there will be pressure to start the rookie and trade Matt Ryan. Either way, the Falcons aren't going to be very competitive next season as they'll need to cut some players to get under the cap.
24. New York Giants, 6-10 (previous rank: 24)
The Giants put up a fight this season, nearly making the playoffs by one game. Now they'll be better with Saquon Barkley's return to the line up, who was missing ever since an injury on week 2. Nate Soldier's return should help as well.
23. Dallas Cowboys, 6-10 (previous rank: 26)
Dallas is rumored to be an elite force in 2021 with Dak Prescott as the opener. But what about the offensive and Defensive line? Dallas wasn't even winning games when Prescott was the opener early is 2020.
22. Washington Football Team, 8-8 (previous rank: 22)
Washington made huge steps from the 2019 season, and now Chase Young will have experience. There defense was pretty dominant in 2020 and is expected to be the same, if not better, in 2021. Even though my father might hate me for ranking his team in the bottom half of the league, their offense is struggling. There QB situation is also a question mark, which is never a good sign. Of course, if they draft themselves a Jackpot QB, they could bounce forwards to the top 16, possibly 12.
21. New England Patriots. 7-9 (previous rank: 20)
The Patriots are a very difficult team to rank without knowing their QB situation. If they can land Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, they will definitely become a playoff contending team again.
20. Minnesota Vikings, 7-9 (previous rank: 21)
The Minnesota Vikings are in an unusual QB situation. Kirk Cousins has shown dominance when playing weaker teams, throwing for 400 yards in week 17 against the Lions. This makes some fans think that Cousins should stay and was worth the terrible contact they signed. Their defense also stinks, and, according to Locked On Today podcast, the "Vikings were too soft this season."
19. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-11 (previous rank: 20)
The Chargers showed some promise with their QB this season, and managed to put up more of a fight then most expected. If Herbert doesn't regress, the Chargers may have a shot at the playoffs this year, however slim.
18. Denver Broncos, 5-11 (previous rank: 18)
The Broncos are another hard team to rank. If they supply themselves with an actual QB like Matt Ryan, the Broncos team will become a serious competitor for the Super Bowl. I had a lot of controversy in my mind over where this team stands, and I still think I ranked them to high.
17. Chicago Bears, 8-8 (previous rank: 19)
This Bears team is a real dilemma. They're defense is good, but their offense is a lot of question marks, especially QB wise. NVP Mitchell Trybulski has not shown the spark he once had. The offensive line was a mess last season, and even though their defense was good, it wasn't enough to get them higher than 8-8.
16. Las Vegas Raiders, 8-8 (previous rank: 17)
You don't even have to watch a Raider's game to know they need to upgrade their defense. Their offense was surprisingly good and even Beat the Kansas City Chiefs, who were 14-2 this season. With a good defense the Raiders are a very serious playoff contender.
15. Arizona Cardinals, 8-8 (previous rank: 16)
Even though I am obviously a Rams fan, I respect my divisional rivals. They improved greatly this season and managed to pull of an upset against the 13-3 Buffalo Bills. They would have been much higher on this list if they hadn't lost 7-18 to a Rams team with a backup QB.
14. Indianapolis Colts, 11-5 (previous rank: 8)
The Colts missed out on Mathew Stafford, so unless the Texans want to trade Deshaun Watson to a divisional rival, the Colts are stuck in the QB position. The Colt's two options as of now are Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz. unfortunately for the Colts, the Falcons are possibly not trading Matt Ryan and the Eagles are asking way to much for Carson Wentz. Things look grim for the Colts, but patience is the best thing the can do right now.
13. Tennessee Titans, 11-5 (previous rank: 7)
The Titans were dominant into the midway point of the season, however they began to slip near the end. This team's ranking will have to depend on how they fare without their offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, who recently took Atlanta's head coach job.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers, 12-4 (previous rank: 12)
For the first time in my five years of writing Offseason Power Ranking, this is the first time the Steelers ended up behind the Top Ten. Big Ben was regressing later down the season. They lost to teams they shouldn't have, like Washington. And even though the defense was good this season, they were kicked from the playoffs by the Browns. The Steelers did not live up to expectations at all.
11. Seattle Seahawks, 12-4 (previous rank: 11)
The Seahawks had a strange inconsistency throughout the season. Either their offense was great and their defense was trash, or vise versa. The Seahawks have gotten lots of flak for their offensive line negligence, but it's not like they haven't tried to repair it. They traded for Duane Brown, spent a first-round pick on Germain Ifedi and found a gem in the third round last year when they selected Damien Lewis. That said, they probably should've addressed the offensive line further when they wasted a first-round pick on L.J. Collier in 2019.
10. Miami Dolphins, 10-6 (previous rank: 13)
Despite finishing 10-6 this season, the Dolphins are a fierce competitor for the playoffs this season. Unfortunately for me, this team is hard to rank because they are linked with Watson. If they start with Tua Tagovailoa this year they could be major playoff competitors. If they start with Deshaun Watson, they would be Super Bowl Contenders.
9. Cleveland Browns, 11-5 (previous rank: 10)
The Browns have shown unnatural aggressiveness, this season, going all the way to putting a fight up against the 14-2 Chiefs in the Divisional Round. For all five years of writing power rankings, the Browns were either in the low 30s or the high 20s. Now their breaking the top ten. Of course, everything depends on if Baker Mayfield plays like he did in 2019 or 2020. Hopefully for the Brown's it the latter.
8. New Orleans Saints, 12-4 (previous rank: 5)
With Drew Brees most likely retiring, the New Orleans Saints will be playing without the All-Star QB for the first time in 15 years. The only reason they still break the top ten is because they still have a lot of weapons. But, if I could, I would rate them a question mark. They are in cap space hell, and we don't know how well they'll actually play without Brees. For now, however, the Saints remain in the top 10.
7. San Francisco 49ers, 6-10 (previous rank: 14)
It hurts me write this, but the 49ers are main competitors for the playoffs and even the Super Bowl. They injured so many players last year, and if they don't do that this season, they could regain those 2019-2020 vibes. They may not be the best team in the NFC, but if they don't injure players like they did last season, they could be easy favorites.
6. Baltimore Ravens, 11-5 (previous rank: 6)
The Ravens are a strong team, and they'll be even better with Ronnie Stanley returning to play. Their only major flaw is the passing game. They ranked very low in the subject and it cost them a divisional round game. If they manage to improve on that, they could become the team to beat in the NFC North.
5. Buffalo Bills, 13-3 (previous rank: 4)
The Bills, unfortunately, were the worst team in the Championship round. They didn't play like they used to. They'll most likely be back next year, but they'll still have Patrick Mahomes in the way. Will this Bills team end up being like the 90s Utah Jazz team, who were really good but never won because they kept running into Michael Jordan? For the Bill's Mafia that has waited 25 years for this, I hope not.
4. Green Bay Packers, 13-3 (previous rank: 3)
This Packers Team would probably be first on this list and be the team throwing the Lombardi trophy across boats if they had drafted Chase Claypool or Tee Higgins instead of -Shudder!- Jordan Love. This team fortunately has an amazing chance at the Super Bowl, but this time they don't have a first round draft pick. . .they would probably draft another QB anyway,
3. Los Angeles Rams, 10-6 (previous rank: 9)
The Rams made a huge jump on the ranking table after the Stafford-Goff trade, and they could jump even further if they can draft players like Marvin Jones. And every Rams fan prays that they somehow manage to draft JJ Watts. The Rams have a bright future, even though it might be short term
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 14-2 (previous rank: 1)
First off, I didn't put the Chiefs at number 2 just because they lost the Super Bowl, its because I know the effects of losing them. The 2018 Los Angeles Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7 after they lost the Super Bowl, and they didn't lose by 22 points. Fortunately, Patrick Mahomes is still young and none of their players are being traded, so they still have amazing odds for the Super Bowl.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 11-5 (previous rank: 2)
The Buccaneers have the G.O.A.T on their side, and their defense seems to be just getting better and better. The only problem I can see is how long it will last. The Tampa Defense struggled earlier in the season and could detain them from getting an incredible record. That doesn't mean they aren't my favorite team to win it all.
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Thanks for reading! These take a lot of time and effort, so please be supportive!

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As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me.
Here we go:

Top-tier:

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These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance.
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1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead.
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2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad.
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3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average.
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4. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)
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Contenders:

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These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry.
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5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A.
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6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry.
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7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown.
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8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary.
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9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11).
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10. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line.
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11. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams.
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12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.
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Fringe playoff teams:

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None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.
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13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5
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14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.
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15. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).
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16. New England Patriots (6-7)
These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.
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17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets.
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18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.
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Striving to reach .500:

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While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division.
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19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position.
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20. New York Giants (5-8)
Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead.
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21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that.
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22. Denver Broncos (5-8)
This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well.
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23. Chicago Bears (6-7)
I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy.
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24. Detroit Lions (5-8)
A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.
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Already out of it:

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The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate.
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25. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division.
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26. Houston Texans (4-9)
Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game.
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27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise.
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28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.
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29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense.
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Final tier in the comments!
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If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/
And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps
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You can find all my social media linked there as well!

Written Thursday January 14th, 2021 at 11 a.m. Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
Last week in the Wildcard Round I made three official picks against the spread: the lone losing bet was the Bills -6.5, while the other two were winners (Ravens -3 and Saints -10).
Many people have asked me to recap my preseason win total predictions. Remember that I previewed each of the 32 NFL teams, while making a pick on the oveunder for their win total. Those plays were largely based on the simulation of one million seasons using the projected point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
It turned out that 20 picks were right versus 12 that were wrong, a nice 62.5% win rate. I ended up racking up more than $8,000 on those bets. I wanted to go to Vegas to place larger bets, but COVID-19 prevented me from making the trip, unfortunately.
It’s now time for my Divisional Round picks against the spread. Buckle up, here we go!!!
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #1: LOS ANGELES RAMS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6.5)
When the line opened at 7, I was clearly leaning towards the Rams. Early money agreed with me and went heavily on Los Angeles, so sportsbooks had to drop the line to 6.5. Since then, I have heard that bettors are hammering the Packers.
After analyzing the game in-depth, I am now betting Green Bay as 6.5-point favorites. Most of the time, I go against the public, but not this time.
The Packers are the number one seed and coming off a bye week. As mentioned several times this season, getting additional time to heal and gameplan has produced a much bigger advantage to great teams, as opposed to weaker squads who do not seem to make good use of this extra time. I believe we all agree Green Bay is a solid team.
On top of that, the Packers will be facing a banged up team. Jared Goff, John Wolford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all hurt. They will likely suit up Saturday, but won’t be 100% for sure.
Also, L.A. is not used to playing in cold weather. We are expecting below-zero temperature, a situation where Aaron Rodgers is 29-7 straight up.
The Rams defense has been very impressive this season, but here is a jaw-dropping statistic: they have allowed an average of 13.5 points per game at home versus 23.5 on the road. That’s a huge difference! They haven’t been nearly as stifling as visitors this year. I do believe Rodgers and company will find a way to move the ball, especially if Aaron Donald is slowed down by his injured ribs.
Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with the Rams. They are 11-6 as home favorites since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach.
Rodgers and Goff did face off against each other in 2018, a game in which the Rams won 29-27 in Los Angeles. Rodgers will get the victory by at least 7 points this time around.
Official pick: Packers -6.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #2: BALTIMORE RAVENS VS BUFFALO BILLS (-2.5)
Born in Florida, Lamar Jackson said it would be his first time playing in the snow, if the forecast is right about getting close to an inch of snow this Saturday in Orchard Park, NY. That would make the field more slippery, and therefore more difficult for him to shake and bake as a runner.
That’s one of the reason why I’m going with Buffalo as 2.5-point favorites. The Bills will also be at home for the third straight week, while Baltimore will be traveling for a third consecutive time.
Also, the Ravens lose one day of preparation after playing last Sunday and now playing Saturday. That’s not a huge blow, but still worth mentioning.
Some things are scaring me, though. Baltimore is 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs. They also match up fairly well against Buffalo since they led the league in yards-per-carry, while Buffalo’s run defense finished 25th in that category. Also, the Bills pass the ball often, which happens to be Baltimore’s strength on defense (they were much softer against the run this year).
Still, I’ll go with Buffalo, whose offense has been much more convincing. The Ravens were struggling against a bad Titans defense last week, until Lamar scored on a 48-yard scamper that completely changed the game.
Despite a recent surge by Baltimore, the Bills seem to be the stronger team and they will be at home on a cold day. They have been one of the hottest teams in the league during the latter portion of the regular season, and they have what it takes to win their first Super Bowl ever.
Official pick: Bills -2.5
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #3: CLEVELAND BROWNS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10)
This won’t be an official pick since I don’t have that much confidence, but if I were forced to bet this game I’d bet Cleveland as 10-point dogs.
However, I do not like the fact that the Chiefs are coming off a bye. Under such circumstances, Andy Reid is 20-3 in his career, an astounding record! Kansas City will also be at home for the fourth straight week, which means they didn’t have to travel and will be well-rested.
Still, I am leaning towards the Browns due to their strong running game facing the Chiefs’ front seven that has been soft at times. Cleveland will be looking to control the clock and leave Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
After throwing 7 interceptions over the first 7 games of the season, Baker Mayfield has thrown just one in its past 10 matches! He has significantly improved, and he seems to be playing better since Odell Beckham went down to an injury.
The Chiefs have beaten the spread in 5 of their past 6 matchups at home against a team with a winning record, but they are just 1-6 ATS as favorites recently.
One more thing prevents me from pulling the trigger on this one: was Cleveland’s win in Pittsburgh last week their Super Bowl? Their subconscious might feel like they’ve already accomplished something great, and they may not be as hungry this week in K.C.
Lean: Browns +10
DIVISIONAL ROUND GAME #4: TAMPA BAY BUCS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3)
You know how much I love the revenge factor. Beating the same opponent three times within the same season is very hard. That’s the challenge the Saints will be facing this Sunday. And that’s one of the reasons I’ll put my money on Tampa.
Am I super confident the Bucs will advance to the NFC Championship Game? No. The Saints might win a close game. If you back New Orleans, your ticket will be a winner only if New Orleans wins the game by 4 points or more. To me, that’s less likely to occur than Tampa either winning the game or losing by less than a field goal.
Sure, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with Sean Payton. They were also 1-4 ATS as road underdogs recently.
However, since their shameful 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 9, Tampa has scored an average of 34 points per game. It took them more time to develop chemistry on offense, and they have since added Antonio Brown to the mix.
New Orleans has beaten the spread the last four times they were home favorites, but they post a disappointing 1-5 ATS record as playoff favorites over the most recent years.
I expect a very tight game that could go either way, in which case I prefer to side with the underdog.
Official pick: Bucs +3
Enjoy the games!
Professor MJ
https://youtu.be/uiKo-YKjgok

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

L.A. Chargers @ Las Vegas (-3)

The Colts smashed the Raiders, 44-27, at Allegiant Stadium. Vegas couldn't stop the Colts offense, and 3 turnovers compounded the Raiders troubles.
"I was mystified as to how a team could play so bad," Jon Gruden said. "So I called my brother Jay for an explanation.
"I fired defensive coordinator Paul Guenther just hours after the loss. Obviously, I needed a 'Paul' guy. But we didn't send Paul away without giving him a proper sendoff. It was called a 'responsible party.'
"We certainly don't intend to let the Chargers treat us like the Colts did. They're coming to Vegas; most that do leave as losers. I'm talking about gamblers, not visiting teams, because we're 2-4 in Vegas. Anyway, the Chargers are going to find out why they call it the 'craps' table, and it's got nothing to do with a sick Lyle Alzado locker room prank back in the early '80s."
The Chargers bounced back from their crushing 45-0 loss to the Patriots with a 20-17 win over the visiting Falcons. Michael Badgley's 43-yard field goal as time expired won it for L.A.
"We just couldn't dwell on the Patriots game," Anthony Lynn said. "Sometimes, you just have to block memories from your mind. Personally, I've forgotten about that Patriots game, plus 9 others."
Raiders win, 33-21.

Buffalo @ Denver (+4½)

The Bills handed the Steelers a 26-15 defeat in Buffalo on Sunday night. After a slow start, the Josh Allen-to-Stefon Diggs connection propelled the Bills one step closer to the AFC East title.
"Josh is playing at an MVP level," Sean McDermott said. "He can beat you with his arm and with his legs. In Buffalo, they call that 'double murder.'
"We were thrilled to get Stefon in a trade with the Vikings. He was just happy to get out of Minnesota. You know things must be bad when you can't wait to leave Minnesota where you play indoors for Buffalo where you play outdoors."
The Broncos beat the Panthers 32-27 in Charlotte, led by Drew Lock's 4 touchdown passes, a career high.
"Before that milestone," Vic Fangio said, "Drew's career 'high' was simply playing at an altitude of 5,280 feet. He's matched that record several times.
"Drew has the talent, and the work ethic to be a great quarterback. Some question, though, whether he has that 'It' factor. He's got more than the 'It' factor; he's got the 'INT' factor."
Bills win, 24-17.

Carolina @ Green Bay (-8½)

The Panthers lost 32-27 to the Broncos, who moved the ball at will against Carolina, who were without several players due to COVID issues.
"We fined several players for breaking COVID protocols," Matt Rhule said. "In their defense, it is hard to put on a mask with a thumb up your ass.
"We've been without Christian McCaffrey for 9 games this season. He's our best player, so we really miss him. But we can't worry about that. We just have to mind our P's and Q's; Christian has to mind his P's, Q's, D's, and O's."
The Packers outlasted the Lions 31-24 at Ford Field and clinched the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers passed for 3 touchdowns and ran for another.
"Aaron is in the zone," Matt LaFleur said. "He's thrown for 36 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. That's a touchdown to interception ratio of 9. By comparison, Brett Favre's career ratio was 1.51, which is slightly higher than Favre's 'texting a D-pic to not texting a D-pic' ratio, which is 1."
Packers win, 33-21.

Detroit @ Tennessee (-8½)

The Lions lost 31-24 to the visiting Packers and fell to 5-8.
"The Packers seem to always have our number," Matthew Stafford said. "They do a better job of 'owning' us than the Ford family.
"Darrell Bevell has brought some life back to this team. More specifically, he's replaced some life, because Matt Patricia sucked the life out of this team. But we wish Matt nothing but the best in his future endeavors. He's probably on some team's short list for a defensive coordinator job, and the job of supervising the In-School Suspension program that comes with it."
Titans win, 30-21.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-7)

The Texans lost 36-7 to the Bears at Soldier Field. Deshaun Watson was sacked 6 times and passed for only 219 yards and 1 touchdown.
"Our offense made the 2020 Bears defense look like the 1985 Bears defense," Watson said. "In other words, we set defenses and offenses back 35 years."
The Colts demolished the Raiders 44-27 in Las Vegas, powered by 2 touchdowns apiece from Jonathan Taylor and T.Y. Hilton. Indy is 9-4, tied with the Titans atop the AFC South.
"Our offense was really clicking," Frank Reich said. "And Philip Rivers is playing as well as he has in years. Philip's got multiple years left in him if he chooses to keep playing. In other words, he's 'got a lot of life left in him,' which was also the case after he had his first child."
Colts win, 34-21.

San Francisco @ Dallas (+1½)

The Cowboys beat the Bengals 30-7 in Cincinnati in Andy Dalton's return to Cincinnati. Dalton passed for 2 scores and the Dallas defense forced 3 turnovers.
"That had to be a satisfying win for Andy," Mike McCarthy said. "It's not often you experience the ecstasy of improving to 4-9 by beating a 2-9 team. If Andy has a bucket list, it's likely he still hasn't checked anything off of it.
"We're still right in the thick of the NFC East race. Then again, who's not?"
San Francisco wins, 27-20.

NY Jets @ L.A. Rams (-17)

The Rams whipped the Patriots 24-3 on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium. The Rams defense dominated with 6 sacks and an interception return for a touchdown.
"As they say," Sean McVay said, "'Defense wins championships.' As they also say, 'The offense that scores only 3 points makes it possible for the defense to win championships.' That may be a reference to a recent Super Bowl, or so I'm told.
"There's too much on the line to take the Jets lightly. But that doesn't necessarily mean we'll take them seriously."
The Jets fell to 0-13 after a humiliating 40-3 loss to the Seahawks at Lumen Field. New York's offense struggled, while Seattle piled up over 400 total yards.
"We did have a 3-0 lead," Adam Gase said. "And much like when we had the lead against the Raiders, we were soon 'all out blitzed.'"
Rams win, 31-16.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+4)

The Buccaneers vanquished the visiting Vikings 26-14, led by Tom Brady's 2 touchdown passes and a defense that sacked Kirk Cousins 6 times. Tampa is 8-5, second in the NFC South.
"Tom may be 43-years-old," Bruce Arians said, "but he's not done telling his story. I think he has another chapter to write. If he wins his seventh Super Bowl, it will pass Warren Sapp's as the most famous 'Chapter 7' in Tampa history."
Buccaneers win, 28-21.

New England @ Miami (-2)

The Patriots managed only 220 yards of total offense in a 24-3 loss to the Rams on Thursday night. Cam Newton struggled and was benched in the fourth quarter.
"I guess the Rams can say they got revenge for losing Super Bowl LIII," Bill Belichick said. "Good for them. I guess to the Rams, the word 'revenge' has a nice ring to it. And that's probably the closest they'll get to a 'ring' of any kind.
"Cam is still our No. 1 quarterback, but only because of his jersey."
The Dolphins intercepted Patrick Mahomes 3 times, but it wasn't enough as K.C. left Miami with a 33-27 win. Mahomes passed for 393 yards and 2 touchdowns.
"The Chiefs offense really knows how to stretch a defense," Brian Flores said. "They make you cover every inch of the field. The Patriots offense? They also know how to stretch a defense — their own.
"With no fans allowed in the stadium, we don't have much of a home-field advantage. It's so quiet, you can practically hear everything. So, 'Hard Rock Stadium' has become 'Easy Listening Stadium.'"
Miami wins, 24-17.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-3)

The Bears spanked the visiting Texans 36-7 to end a six-game losing streak. Mitch Trubisky passed for 3 touchdowns, and David Montgomery rushed for 113 yards and a score.
"That's the kind of offense Bears fans have been waiting to see around here," Matt Nagy said. "And Houston's is the kind of defense this Bears offense has been waiting to see around here."
The Bucs beat the Vikings 26-14 in Tampa, snapping Minnesota's two-game winning streak. The Vikings out-gained the Bucs, but 4 missed kicks by Dan Bailey doomed Minnesota.
"That really puts a damper on our playoff aspirations," Mike Zimmer said. "Much like Dan Bailey's kicking. If you put Dan Bailey and Blair Walsh on a rocket ship to the moon, guess what? I would not miss ... them."
Vikings win, 26-21.

Seattle @ Washington (+5½)

The Seahawks hammered the visiting Jets, 40-3. Russell Wilson tossed 4 touchdown passes as Seattle improved to 9-4.
"That was like shooting fish in a barrel," Wilson said. "That's called getting 'schooled.'"
Washington took over sole possession of first in the NFC East with a 23-16 win over the 49ers.
"We are by far the most dangerous 6-7 team in the NFL," Ron Rivera said. "Actually, we're probably the only dangerous 6-7 team in the league.
"I'm sure the Panthers are having second thoughts about firing me. And second thoughts are about the closest to first the Panthers will get this year."
Seahawks win, 27-24.

Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-13)

The Ravens outgunned the Browns 47-42 in Cleveland, as Lamar Jackson rushed for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns and added a passing score.
"It took Lamar awhile to really go off on a team," John Harbaugh said, "but he really 'unloaded' on the Browns.
"Did Lamar have the leave the game because of cramps, or was it something else? Some say he went to the locker room to receive intravenous fluids. Others say Lamar went back to release intra-anus solids."
The Jaguars lost 31-10 to the visiting Titans, who dominated in handing Jacksonville its 12th straight loss.
"Gardner Minshew is back as starter for Sunday's game," Doug Marrone said. "But just Sunday's game. I can't commit to him long term. I can't tell you how many times I've had that said to me. When you're choosing between Gardner, Jake Luton, and Mike Glennon, no decision is the right one.
"Oddly enough, legend has it that if you chant the words 'Minshew, Luton, Glennon' three times into a mirror, Shad Khan will appear and cast you into the fires of Hell, or maybe just fire you."
Ravens win, 33-14.

Philadelphia @ Arizona (-5½)

The Eagles upset the Saints 24-21 at Lincoln Financial Field in Jalen Hurts first start at quarterback. Hurts rushed for 106 yards as the Eagles as a team amassed 246 on the ground.
"We call Jalen the 'option' quarterback," Doug Pederson said, "because he's the cheaper option.
"We can't say for sure whether or not Carson Wentz will be a part of this team next year. We have a lot of money invested in him, so we owe it to ourselves to make a sound, informed decision. Because we owe more to Carson."
The Cardinals beat the Giants 26-7 at MetLife Stadium as Arizona's defense held the Giants to 159 total yards and recorded 8 sacks.
"That win tells us a lot about ourselves," Kliff Kingsbury said, "and even more about the NFC East. Of course, who am I kidding? If we were in the NFC East, like in the good old days, we only have a one game lead in the division."
Cardinals win, 23-20.

Kansas City @ New Orleans (+3)

The Chiefs quickly erased an early 10-0 deficit at Miami and stormed back to take a 33-27 win. Travis Kelce had 8 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown, and Patrick Mahomes passed for 393 yards and 2 scores.
"We clinched the AFC West title," Mahomes said. "Officially, that is. Unofficially, we clinched in back in September, before any games were played. Was there ever any doubt that we wouldn't win the West? I'll answer that with another question: Was there ever any doubt that Andy Reid wouldn't win the 1971 'Punt, Pass, and Kick' competition in Los Angeles?"
The Saints lost 24-21 to the Eagles in Philadelphia and dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in the NFC rankings. The Eagles piled up 246 yards rushing and 2 TDs on the ground. If the regular season ended today, Green Bay would earn the first-round bye instead of the Saints.
"Our defense was exposed," Sean Payton said. "They played like 'S.' For that, they should have the 'S' removed from their nickname, thus making them the 'Aints.'
"And speaking of 'paper sacks,' we're gonna have to have the opposite and bring our big boy scrotums to hold the cajones it will take to slow the Chiefs offense. To do that, we'll have to show Mahomes that he can't just stand in the pocket without the threat of being hit. To do that, we'll have to make sure our defense understands the magnitude of achieving that goal. To do that, we'll have Gregg Williams surprise them with a pre-game speech littered with obscenities and promises of cash. Ironically, Gregg is 'free.'"
Chiefs win, 28-23.

Cleveland @ NY Giants (+3½)

The Browns lost a 47-42 shootout to the visiting Ravens on Monday night in Cleveland. The loss dropped the Browns to 9-4, trailing the 11-2 Steelers, and a game ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North.
"The score of 47-42 was a first in NFL history," Baker Mayfield said. "So, although the final score may have been unusual, the outcome was typical Browns.
"The AFC North is arguably the toughest division in the NFL. When you experience the rigors of the North, you learn a lot about your strengths and your weaknesses. It's both our strength and our weakness that we can only beat the Bengals."
The Giants looked awful in a 26-7 home loss to the Cardinals. The Cards dominated in the trenches; Arizona recorded 159 yards rushing, and sacked Giants quarterbacks 8 times.
"A win would have kept us in first in the NFC East," Joe Judge said. "So that was a huge game. And we sucked a large one."
Giants win, 27-24.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+13)

The Bills scored 23 unanswered points on their way to a 26-15 win over the visiting Steelers, who have now lost two in a row after starting the season 11-0. Pittsburgh's offense struggled, with only 224 total yards.
"It's time to go back to basics," Mike Tomlin said. "Luckily, we're already there on offense.
"Our receivers are struggling with drops as of late. And that puts Ben Roethlisberger in a pickle. He doesn't know who he can trust to catch one of his 4-yard passes.
"We practiced in pads on the Friday before our game in Buffalo. I needed to remind our guys that the key to our success is physicality. Did it work? I don't think so. It was like when LeGarrette Blount played here, because everyone got a 'contact high.'"
The Bengals fell to 2-10 with a 30-7 loss to the visiting Cowboys.
"Mike Tomlin said a few weeks ago that his team played like a JV squad," Zac Taylor said. "Well, that team would still be heavily favored over us."
Pittsburgh wins, 33-9.

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
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Sunday Games
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Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
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Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
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New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
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Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
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Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
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Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
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Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
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Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
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Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
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Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
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New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
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Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
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Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
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Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
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Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
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Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)

• NYG ml (1u to win 1.1u)
• N. Chubb ATTS and Browns ml (2.4u to win 2u)
• NYJ ml (1u to win 1.35u)
• NYJ +3.5 (2.6u to win 2u)
• Justin Jefferson 70+ Rec Yards and 1+Tds Over (3u to win 6.45u)
• Justin Jefferson 100+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.8u)
• Justin Jefferson 125+ Rec Yards Over (1u to win 4.5u)
• Adam Thielen 68.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• Marvin Jones 64.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1u)
• Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
• Mark Andrews Over 50.5 Rec Yards (2.3u to win 2u)
• Dez Bryant ATTS and Ravens win (1u to win 3u)
• Buffalo 1Q ml (1.2u to win 1u)
• CHI +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Derrick Henry Over 118.5 Rush Yards (5u to win 4u)
• Brandin Cooks Over 69.5 Rec Yards (3.33u to win 3u)
• CAR ml (0.5u to win 1.13u)
• CAR +6 (2.2u to win 2u)
• LAR if the points go back to 3...and the money line if it goes over 125.
• John Wolford Over 25.5 Rush yards (5u to win 4u)
• Tyler Higbee Over 24.5 Rec Yards (1.1u to win 1u)
• Tyler Higbee Over 2.5 Rec (1u to win 1.07u)
• J. Hurts 56.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)

• Ravens ml, Browns ml, Seattle ml, TEN ml, J. Wolford ATTD and Rams win (2u to win 27.73u)
• Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, NYG +6.5, NYJ +6.5 (FB to win 110.56u)
• Ravens, Browns, TEN, Seattle, Indy, TB, LV, NYG +3.5, NYJ ml, CAR +6 (5u to win 270u)

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Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)

• CLE -2.5, NYJ +8.5, NYG +8.5, LAR +8.5 and U48.5, SEA ml and U52.5 (3.86u to win 23.45u)

BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)

• I have 7 in for 9u

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Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
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Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!